Is Japan opening a 'second front'? Plans to export Type 03 medium-range missiles to the Philippines, directly targeting the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea

What does it mean when a weasel wishes a chicken a happy new year? Recently, the situation in the South China Sea has once again stirred up waves. Under the strong push of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese government officially announced: plans to export the 'Type 03' medium-range air defense missiles to the Philippines! The news broke, and there was jubilation in Manila, as they thought they had finally latched onto a powerful ally, obtaining a 'divine weapon' to counter the Chinese Navy. On the Japanese right, there were celebrations as well, feeling that they had finally broken the taboo on 'weapons exports' and could create trouble for China in the South China Sea.

But as someone who understands a bit about military knowledge, upon seeing this news, all I want to say to the Philippines is: take care. Why? Because what Japan is sending this time is not a 'protective umbrella', but an expensive 'one-way ticket to hell'. Today, let's dissect this so-called 'Japanese divine shield' to see what quality it really has, and what sinister calculations are hidden behind it. This thing is just an outdated 'short-legged' product. The Philippines thinks it's buying a 'Patriot'-level divine weapon, but little do they know, Japan is selling them a 'shrunk version'. In modern warfare, what do air defense missiles compete on? Range and speed. Let's take a look at the data for this 'Type 03', and it is simply tragic: a range of 50 kilometers and a maximum altitude of only 10 kilometers. The speed is even pitifully slow, at only 2.5 Mach. What does this mean?

In comparison, the U.S. military's 'Patriot-3' has an interception range of up to 160 kilometers and a speed of 6 Mach. China's Hongqi-9B has a range that exceeds 200 kilometers. Japan's missile, a few decades ago, might have been acceptable, but on today's great power chessboard, it is typical 'industrial waste'. A range of 50 kilometers means what? It means that the Chinese Navy's destroyers do not even need to enter its range; they can launch 'Changjian-10' or 'Yingji-18' missiles from hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away while sipping tea, blowing it up to the sky. This is akin to two people dueling, with the Philippines holding a water gun that shoots 5 meters while the opponent has a sniper rifle with a range of 1000 meters. How can this battle be fought? This is completely a 'dimensionality reduction strike'.

The BrahMos missile that the Philippines previously purchased from India has a range of at least 290 kilometers; although it is still not enough, at least it can get somewhat close. Now, buying a 50-kilometer Japanese product is just for celebrating surrender, right? Still playing 'naked running' in the stealth era. If 'short legs' are just a performance issue, then 'blindness' is a fatal flaw. The 'Type 03' air defense missile was developed relatively early, and its radar system does not have anti-stealth capabilities at all. What is the configuration of the current Chinese Air Force? We won't even mention the J-20 and J-35 fifth-generation fighters; they are overkill for a chicken. We also have the Attack-11 stealth UAV and the Rainbow-7 unmanned bomber. These stealthy assassins can quietly approach right above the Philippines. Meanwhile, on the radar screen of the 'Type 03', it might still be a snowstorm.

Not to mention we also have the J-15D and J-16D electronic warfare aircraft. Once this roaring beast is powered on, the intense electromagnetic suppression will instantly render the 'Type 03's radar blind and deaf. It won’t even have a chance to fire before being precisely targeted by anti-radiation missiles. Therefore, Japan selling such an outdated air defense system to the Philippines is essentially providing them with a 'psychological placebo'. Its only function is to let Philippine soldiers see a few missiles as accompaniments before being blown away.

▲ Japan's attempt to build a North-South encirclement intervention strategy Next is Japan's 'borrowed knife to kill' scheme. Since the performance is so poor, why does Japan still want to sell? Why does the Philippines still want to buy? This is the darkest aspect of this matter. For the Takaichi government, whether the missiles are useful is not important at all. What matters is to tear open the 'weapons export' gate! Japan is treating the Philippines as a 'guinea pig' and 'cannon fodder'. The Japanese military-industrial complex has been silent for many years and urgently needs a blood transfusion. By exporting weapons to the Philippines, Japan can not only make money and revive its military industry but also intervene in the South China Sea situation, binding the Philippines to its war chariot to consume China's energy. This is Japan's calculation—to let the Philippines die in front while Japan counts the money behind, conveniently irritating China in the process.

For the Philippines, this is a complete tragedy. They think they have bought safety, but in reality, they have bought 'faster destruction'. Deploying such aggressively colored (albeit poor-performing) weapons will only raise the priority of the Philippines on China’s strike list. As the Chinese saying goes: 'When virtue does not match position, there will surely be disaster.' Similarly, 'a weak nation with tired soldiers, yet attempting to wield sharp blades' is a path leading to death. The scrap metal that Japan exports cannot change the huge power gap between China and the Philippines, nor can it stop the Chinese Navy from moving towards the deep blue.

Whether it is India's BrahMos or Japan's Type 03, in the face of China's constructed multi-dimensional combat system, they are merely slightly larger mice. What we really need to be wary of is not these missiles, but the ambition of Japan's militarism to resurrect. As for the Philippines? If they insist on spending a lot of money to buy Japan's discarded goods to become cannon fodder, we won't stop them. After all, in the PLA's exercise grounds, we do indeed need a few somewhat decent physical targets to practice on.