【US Dollar Main Line: Double Breakthrough in Rate Cut Expectations and Employment Signals】
- Policy Side: Hassett candidly stated that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting; a Reuters survey shows 89 economists betting on a rate cut to the range of 3.50%-3.75% on December 10, with 50 expecting it to drop to 3.25%-3.50% by Q1 2026——there is already a consensus breakthrough in the pace of rate cuts.
- Data Side: The number of layoffs from Challenger companies in November dropped significantly by 53.4% month-on-month, and initial jobless claims last week hit a new low since September 2022——the resilience of the job market has broken through pessimistic expectations, while Revelio Labs anticipates a decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November (with October revised to a decrease of 15,500), showing a divergence pattern of "strong yet weak" in employment.
- Regulatory Side: The U.S. Government Accountability Office has launched an investigation into critic Powell of the Federal Reserve, and Treasury Secretary Basant will host a financial stability meeting on December 11——adding another breakthrough point in policy oversight.
【Yen Main Line: Double Breakthrough in Rate Hike Expectations and Policy Assessment】
- Informed sources reveal: Bank of Japan officials are prepared to raise rates at this month's policy meeting, provided there are no significant shocks to the economy/financial system; at the same time, the central bank is assessing the neutral interest rate level——the substantive preparations for a shift in monetary policy have broken through the "verbal probing" stage.
- The leaders of Japan and South Korea may hold talks in Nara in mid-January next year——geoeconomic interactions are entering a new breakthrough window.
【Other Global Currencies: Breakthrough in Central Bank Policy Actions】
- The Reserve Bank of India cut rates by 25 basis points and purchased 1 trillion rupees in bonds, while the Polish central bank tends to remain on hold before further rate cuts——the wave of rate cuts in emerging markets adds another breakthrough case.
- The People's Bank of China net drained 1,615 billion yuan in a single day and had a net drain of 8,480 billion yuan this week——the intensity of liquidity adjustment has broken through recent norms.
- Russia's settlements in its national currency account for over 90%, with sanctioned banks seeking to enter the Indian market——the practice of "de-dollarization" has made another breakthrough progress. $ETH $BTC $SOL #美联储重启降息步伐
