Grayscale's Opinion on the 4-Year Cycle

The company's analysts stated: even after a decline of over 36% from October's peak, Bitcoin still has a chance to reach a new ATH in 2026 — not because it happened before, but because the market has completely changed its architecture.

The current cycle is unlike 2017 or 2021: there is no parabolic rise, no mass euphoria, no retail madness that typically precedes a climax. On the contrary — everything is moving slowly, heavily, and through institutional decisions: fund rebalancing, ETF accumulation, corporate structural purchases. It is these that set the price, not the crowd.

The four-year cycle theory worked during the retail era and halving psychology, but today the logic is different — liquidity, Fed rates, access to ETFs, and corporate flows.