BTC Outlook

Summary

Bitcoin has weakened significantly, influenced by a combination of institutional fund outflows, bearish technical pressure, and declining retail buying interest. Here are the main points:

1. Sharp Price Drop, The BTC decline is confirmed by bearish technical signals and dominant selling volume.

2. Varied Institutional Actions, ETFs have seen outflows, but on the other hand, whales appear to be actively accumulating.

3. Weakened Market Sentiment, Realized losses have increased and retail buying intentions have decreased, adding pressure to the market.

Positive Side

1. Whales Start to Re-enter

Whales and sharks accumulated 47,584 BTC throughout December, ending the previous distribution phase, a pattern that has historically often appeared before a new upward trend.

2. Confidence from Fidelity

Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson personally holds Bitcoin and describes it as an important long-term savings instrument in Fidelity's future roadmap.

3. Support from Sovereign Wealth Funds

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink confirmed that several sovereign wealth funds are buying BTC during the correction and intend to hold it for the long term.

Main Risks

1. Strengthening Bearish Technicals

BTC fell below $90,000 with MACD and EMA affirming strong bearish momentum, accompanied by significant selling volume.

2. High ETF Outflows

BlackRock's IBIT ETF recorded outflows of $2.7 billion in the last five weeks, including $113 million on December 4, a clear sign of decreasing institutional interest in the short term.

3. Market Pressure & Declining Buying Intentions

Realized losses are at their highest since the post-FTX era, indicating significant pressure on short-term holders, while buying interest from US investors has decreased.

Community Sentiment

Current market sentiment is quite mixed: some anticipate a deeper decline, while others see this correction as an accumulation opportunity for the long term.