This is a very critical point in time (December 2025). According to the current on-chain data and market intelligence analysis, the movements of 'smart money' are much more complex than simply 'buying'.
The current on-chain signals show **'Institutional bottom positions locked, but short-term observation'**. Although the narrative of ERC-7683 is very grand, $ACX faced unique internal challenges in 2025, leading to divergences in smart money.
Below is an in-depth analysis of on-chain data and smart money positioning for $ACX:
1. The real movements of smart money: Who is buying? Who is selling?
The current capital flow is not one-sided buying, but rather shows a 'turnover' state:
* The 'Paradigm Effect' of top institutions:
* Review: In early 2025 (around Q1/Q2), Paradigm led a funding round of $41 million. This is the largest 'smart money' endorsement for $ACX. Most of this funding is still in a locked or long-term holding state, indicating that top VCs' long-term vision (3-5 years) for ERC-7683 has not changed.
* Short-term capital's 'risk-off exit':
* Negative interference: In mid-2025 (around June), there were controversies regarding DAO fund management in the market (involving approximately $23 million in fund dispatch concerns). This led to a wave of 'risk-off' smart money exiting, and was one of the main reasons for $ACX's price drop from its peak.
* Current situation: By December, the selling pressure has significantly decreased. The current price range (around $0.05 - $0.06) is seen as the 'Deep Value Zone'.
2. Recent on-chain signals (2025 Q4 - December)
Despite the price being low, I have identified some highly promising new accumulation signals that are directly related to the expansion of ERC-7683:
* Signal One: Layout in the new battlefield (Monad & Solana)
* Key event: Around November 24, Across announced a deep integration with Monad (a highly anticipated high-performance L1), leveraging ZK technology for fast cross-chain transactions.
* Interpretation: This is a typical 'smart money' layout. Monad is viewed as the next big gold mine by institutions, and Across has positioned itself as the preferred bridge in the Monad ecosystem, indicating that future liquidity holders are betting that Across will benefit from Monad's dividends.
* Signal Two: Huge trading volume on PancakeSwap
* Data shows that Across's integration in DEXs like PancakeSwap has seen a significant increase in monthly processing volume in Q4 (breaking through $45 million/month). This indicates that 'real use cases' are supporting the coin price rather than mere speculation.
* Signal Three: Activity of stablecoin whales
* Some on-chain analyses indicate that within the range of $0.05-$0.06, specific wallet addresses are making small, continuous accumulations. This pattern is typically the behavior of market makers or quantitative funds during low volatility periods.
3. Has the 'network effect' of ERC-7683 fermented?
Yes, but a bit slower than expected.
* Positive news: UniswapX has been integrated, and the Optimism and Base ecosystems also support this standard. This establishes Across as a 'standard setter' moat.
* Reality: Smart money is waiting for a **'trigger point'**—more wallets (like MetaMask or Phantom) to directly integrate ERC-7683 standard. Once this happens, Across's trading volume will increase exponentially. The current low price can be seen as the 'ambush period' before this trigger point.
💡 Summary and operational advice
Conclusion:
Currently, $ACX is in the **'recovery period after mispricing'**. Smart money has not exited massively but is quietly accumulating chips at the bottom, especially funds optimistic about Monad and Solana ecosystem expansion, taking advantage of previous FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt).
Your advice:
* Pay attention to news about the 'Monad Testnet/Mainnet': If Across performs strongly in the early stages of Monad's launch, this will be the first catalyst for $ACX's price to return to an upward channel.
* Observe the support level at $0.055: If the price can continue to consolidate with reduced volume at this position, this is a technical signal that institutions have completed accumulation.
* Don't just look at the coin price, pay attention to the 'intent count': If you use Dune Analytics, please focus on the chart of 'Across Protocol V3/V4 Fills'. As long as the number of trades is increasing, the lag in coin price is just temporary.
From Gemini 3 Pro