Brothers, today's ETH liquidation structure can be simply summarized in one sentence:
Break above 3200 → Short position liquidation of 764 million
Break below 3000 → Long position liquidation of 973 million
But the implications behind this are very dangerous:
Ethereum is currently stuck on a "liquidation knife edge worth 1.73 billion dollars."
If either side is pierced, it will trigger a liquidity tsunami.
The more critical point is—
This market movement is not decided by ETH itself,
It is the main force deliberately keeping it stuck here, causing everyone to lose their composure.
I'll break this down to the bone for you.
1) Why is ETH stuck between 3000 and 3200?
Many people say ETH has no opportunity now.
But the more you watch, the more you will find:
This is a typical 'clearing symmetrical structure'.
Above 3200 is a bear gathering area
Below 3000 is a bull dense area
And this 3100 range——
It is exactly the 'torture zone' that the main force loves.
You don't rise, I don't fall;
You want to go all in, I won't give direction;
You want to run, I make you hesitate.
The reason is simple:
The main force has to wait for 'which side's chips are weaker' before cutting.
2) Two paths, two kinds of deaths, but only one direction can trigger the main rising wave
Look at the numbers:
Breakthrough 3200 -> Bears need to explode 764 million
This is a very large clearing scale, which will lead to:
Short squeeze
Forced buyback
Buy orders snowball
Trading volume released
Breakthrough becomes trend
This is a typical:
The ignition point of the main rising wave.
And ETH is now less than 100 dollars from this point.
In a word:
As long as it pierces 3200, the market will directly turn into a trend.
Break below 3000 -> Bulls need to explode 973 million
The scale here is larger,
Means:
Strong liquidation of long positions
Reverse selling pressure
Liquidity is drained
Altcoins have been dragged down
ETH has fallen to 2800 or even lower
This is typical:
Final wash + big turnover.
If the main force wants to absorb chips cheaply, this is the harshest way.
3) So which side will the main force choose? Look at two key variables
I tell you, putting ETH in this range is not for oscillation.
They are observing three things:
A: Who's sentiment collapses first?
The panic index dropped to 23 today,
Retail sentiment has collapsed to the bottom.
This means:
The mentality of bulls is weaker than that of bears.
This is an important signal for the main force.
B: Does the macro work?
Core PCE dropped to 2.8%
The probability of interest rate cuts skyrocketing next week
The Federal Reserve's attitude has turned dovish
The macro is clearly biased towards bulls.
This actually reduces the necessity for a downward explosion of longs.
Because once the interest rate cut expectation lands:
ETH is difficult to fall back to the 2900 similar range.
The main force knows this point.
C: USDC has increased 10 billion in the past month
Brother, this is a big killer.
When on-chain liquidity surges,
The main force generally will not choose 'smash the plate to absorb the chips'.
Because:
Too much money, can't smash deep.
Liquidity is too sufficient, cannot fall.
Efficiency is low, risk is not worth it.
More often, the main force will choose:
Explode upward, let funds flow in with the trend.
4) The current market is a 'deep energy accumulation zone'
You think ETH is weak,
But the real situation is:
L2 Prosperity
Blob fees surged 15 million times
ETH's destruction mechanism is about to be enhanced
Corporate treasury starts to include ETH
RWA/tokenization/payment is undergoing on-chain migration
Technology, value, macro, funds——
Four lines are converging together.
What you see is sideways trading,
But what the main force sees is:
Above 3200 is a fast lane to trend market.
What they are doing now is called:
Waiting for the weakest chips to stand on the knife edge themselves.
5) Who should really be afraid?
Not a bear, not a bull.
It is those:
Short at 3100, hoping for ETH to plunge
More at 3150, waiting for ETH to accelerate
Positions dare not increase
Dare not to stop loss
The more you wait, the more afraid you are
The more afraid, the less opportunity.
These people are the main fuel.
The market is never created by technology,
It is the psychological structure that created this.
And now, the psychological structure has been weakened to the extreme.
The final cut
ETH is not dead.
ETH is not weak either.
ETH is standing on the knife edge of a '1.73 billion dollar clearing chain',
Can cut the market in half at any time.
Once the direction is determined, it's not a 50 dollar fluctuation, but a 500 dollar trend.
You think it's range oscillation,
But the main force is waiting for one thing:
Who makes the first mistake.$ETH
