Dear crypto friends, I am Lingxi!
In the early morning market, I believe many people were bewildered—ETH's 4-hour chart has been steadily declining, with layers of resistance, yet the MACD is hovering above the 0 axis pretending to form a dead cross, and the price is stuck around 3020, neither going up nor down... Is it really going to drop to 2980 or even 2790? Don't rush; in conjunction with the recently released US core PCE data, I've noticed a detail that most people have overlooked, which may trigger a turning point tonight!
The news hides mysteries; could the bullish sentiment be a trap?
At 11:00 PM, the core PCE year-on-year rate in the United States recorded 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.8%. The data immediately marked red for 'positive for gold and silver'. Theoretically, inflation stickiness would suppress the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, which is bearish for risk assets, but the market rebounded instantly—this unexpected reaction is likely due to the main players using the news to 'dig a pit'! ETH currently feels like a rope hanging over a cliff; pulling it up is a bait for longs, while kicking it down is a washout. The main position data I track shows that smart money is quietly laying out a key point, and if retail investors blindly chase highs and sell lows, they could very well fall before dawn.
The technical aspect reveals a 'contradictory signal'; what trick is the main force playing?
The chart clearly indicates: the upper range of 3260-3430 is a rebound resistance zone, while the lower range of 2980 is the first target support. But take note! Although the MACD shows a death cross, it remains above the zero axis, indicating that the downward momentum is actually weakening. More crucially, the price consistently holds at 3020 without deep declines, resembling the 'hanging man' washing technique. My experience suggests that during such times, there is often a false breakout—either a rapid surge to test 3100 to entice buyers before dropping to 2980; or a breach below 3000 to create panic before a violent rally. The next 4 hours will determine whether this month is about profit or loss!
Lingxi's personal view: oscillating upward, but don't celebrate too early!
Considering the positive data and the technical divergence, I believe today will see 'oscillating upward', but it will not be a one-sided increase! The main force will likely quickly test 3100, creating the illusion of a breakout to attract retail investors to chase prices, before turning back to oscillate around the 3020-3050 zone. If the 3260 resistance zone cannot be broken with volume, there may still be a pullback to 2980 or even 2790. Remember, in a bull market, there are often sharp declines, and in a bear market, there are often spikes—this is the golden moment for the main force to collect leverage contracts!
If you've noticed that the trading volume of ETH has significantly increased tonight, but you're unsure if it's a 'bottom-fishing signal' or a 'pre-dive warning', follow Lingxi. I will reveal the complete chain of how the main force uses PCE data to wash the market and provide key level forecasts for next week. After all, in this market, most people focus on price, while few focus on motives— which one will you choose?
