If $BTC follows the same market cycle, this is where it could probably go.
I shared this article back in February. Give it a read. 👇
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CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Isn’t FUD - It’s the Opportunity
Whenever the price goes down, obviously, as traders, we all get scared. And right now it seems like Bitcoin is repeating its four-year cycle. So, there’s some fear, but in this article, we’ll discuss that this four-year cycle isn’t really a FUD; it’s an opportunity. At least, that’s how I see it, and it’s an opportunity that comes to any investor or trader once every four years.
I just want to talk about where I think price is going to head in the coming days, coming weeks, coming months and kind of my overall plan on how to buy somewhere near the lows, assuming this cycle is like all the cycles we'v had before.
Bitcoin Four years cycle
Every time we have a new market cycle, everyone gets the same kind of thought process going, "Oh, this time's different. This time things are going to change. and it just ends up being the same thing where we have effectively the market top four years.
If you look at Bitcoin’s historical price action, the four-year cycle becomes very clear. The market topped in November 2013, then again four years later in December 2017. Another four years after that, Bitcoin marked its peak in November 2021. Following the same rhythm, the most recent cycle top formed around October 2025. Four years every time
Bitcoin Bear Market
And the same pattern appears on the downside as well. When you look at Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows, they also occur roughly four years apart. Historically, Bitcoin follows a familiar rhythm: about three years of sustained upside, followed by one year of a bear market, and then a continuation of the broader trend. This structure has repeated itself cycle after cycle. Every single time, the pattern has remained remarkably consistent.
The Game Plan To Buy Bitcoin
The simple way that I will be using outside of watching the market and looking for bullish market structure and timing is by using the fibs.Every single bear market has bottomed somewhere between the 61.8 and the 78.6. 6 Fibonacci from the prior cycle. Lets give it a look.
2014 Bear market
2018 Bear market
2022 Bear market
So if you go from this low to this high, there's your bear market low for every cycle. Somewhere between the 61.8 and the 79% retracement.
Yes, price fell below these fib levels but lets not forget the fact the what happens after market finds the bottom. You don't have to catch the full move and finds a pico bottom. This is something impossible. We want to buy near the bottom so we can catch the part of next bull market move.
The Current Cycle
Assuming things are the same as prior cycles we use the same fib levels on the current cycle.
I'm going to guess that we probably bottom somewhere in this $60k - $40k zone. Does we can't go lower? Of course not. Price can go lower or maybe it doesn't go that low but we are looking at the history here so we can assume that price could trade into this region.
We could trade lower like we see in the prior cycles price even fell below these fib levels. But I think this is going to be the bottoming area.
It's not going to be a single candle. It never is. It always ends up being consolidation. You generally have time to buy the bottom. So, I'm going to assume this time is the same as all other times. And this is going to be where I'm looking to buy near the lows if i want to keep some bitcoin for the next bull market.
Timing wise based on the previous cycles, You can expect the bottom to be formed in Q4 of 2026 And that's going to assume that this cycle is like the cycle before, which was like the cycle before, which was like the cycle before.
Unless something drastic has changed in the market, that is my plan. That is my expectation.
Good luck
I just want to talk about where I think price is going to head in the coming days, coming weeks, coming months and kind of my overall plan on how to buy somewhere near the lows, assuming this cycle is like all the cycles we'v had before.
Bitcoin Four years cycle
Every time we have a new market cycle, everyone gets the same kind of thought process going, "Oh, this time's different. This time things are going to change. and it just ends up being the same thing where we have effectively the market top four years.
If you look at Bitcoin’s historical price action, the four-year cycle becomes very clear. The market topped in November 2013, then again four years later in December 2017. Another four years after that, Bitcoin marked its peak in November 2021. Following the same rhythm, the most recent cycle top formed around October 2025. Four years every time
Bitcoin Bear Market
And the same pattern appears on the downside as well. When you look at Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows, they also occur roughly four years apart. Historically, Bitcoin follows a familiar rhythm: about three years of sustained upside, followed by one year of a bear market, and then a continuation of the broader trend. This structure has repeated itself cycle after cycle. Every single time, the pattern has remained remarkably consistent.
The Game Plan To Buy Bitcoin
The simple way that I will be using outside of watching the market and looking for bullish market structure and timing is by using the fibs.Every single bear market has bottomed somewhere between the 61.8 and the 78.6. 6 Fibonacci from the prior cycle. Lets give it a look.
2014 Bear market
2018 Bear market
2022 Bear market
So if you go from this low to this high, there's your bear market low for every cycle. Somewhere between the 61.8 and the 79% retracement.
Yes, price fell below these fib levels but lets not forget the fact the what happens after market finds the bottom. You don't have to catch the full move and finds a pico bottom. This is something impossible. We want to buy near the bottom so we can catch the part of next bull market move.
The Current Cycle
Assuming things are the same as prior cycles we use the same fib levels on the current cycle.
I'm going to guess that we probably bottom somewhere in this $60k - $40k zone. Does we can't go lower? Of course not. Price can go lower or maybe it doesn't go that low but we are looking at the history here so we can assume that price could trade into this region.
We could trade lower like we see in the prior cycles price even fell below these fib levels. But I think this is going to be the bottoming area.
It's not going to be a single candle. It never is. It always ends up being consolidation. You generally have time to buy the bottom. So, I'm going to assume this time is the same as all other times. And this is going to be where I'm looking to buy near the lows if i want to keep some bitcoin for the next bull market.
Timing wise based on the previous cycles, You can expect the bottom to be formed in Q4 of 2026 And that's going to assume that this cycle is like the cycle before, which was like the cycle before, which was like the cycle before.
Unless something drastic has changed in the market, that is my plan. That is my expectation.
Good luck