Is Dogecoin waking up? Or is it still lying flat? The latest data tells you the truth
Dogecoin, which has long sat on the throne of meme coins (\u003ct-94/\u003e), currently still has a market cap of 23.28 billion USD, looking quite splendid, but the reality is that the price has been under pressure. In the past year, it has dropped by 67%, and in the last 24 hours, it recorded another -2.4%. For holders, that feeling goes without saying.
However, behind the decline, some "quiet things" are happening that may affect the overall trend of Dogecoin. AMBCrypto has provided some key indicators, let's chat about it easily.
🟡 No bubbles? Not necessarily a bad thing.
First, let’s talk about a few indicators that are rarely noticed by ordinary investors but have a significant impact.
From the market sentiment model, Dogecoin is currently almost 'bubble-free'. What does that mean? Simply put, the market doesn't think it's expensive, and no one believes it will skyrocket immediately or that the bubble will burst.
Typically, when this indicator is low, it often indicates that the market may be weak, but this time it instead reveals that:
The market is quietly accumulating rather than panic selling.
This point is crucial, as it aligns perfectly with some data on-chain.
🟢 On-chain activity is soaring: Is someone quietly laying out plans?
According to the latest data from Santiment, the daily active addresses for Dogecoin recently soared to 73,560. This is not a small increase; it’s the kind that would make analysts raise their eyebrows.
More active addresses indicate that people are moving. Some are buying, and some are selling, but usually, this kind of significant increase, combined with the previous 'no bubble accumulation signal', means:
Funds are slowly flowing back into Dogecoin.
In other words, while it appears to be falling endlessly, there are people picking up the pieces beneath.
📈 Is demand really increasing?
To be honest, just looking at on-chain data is not enough; we need to see if the 'actual buying' can keep up.
The good news is: the spot market has indeed been active recently.
Retail buying has remained strong for a week, and the net trading flow indicator shows:
Buyers are taking the initiative.
This week, about 3 million USD worth of Dogecoin has been bought in, with a cumulative net purchase of nearly 50 million USD this week, equivalent to over 2% of Dogecoin's market value.
That's not a small number.
However, speaking of which, the overall trading volume is still declining, which means that although spot demand is increasing, the overall market sentiment remains weak. Simply put:
Those who dare to buy are buying, but most people are still watching.
⚠️ 0.14 USD might be in play, but don't forget that there's a mountain ahead.
In the short term, if spot demand continues to remain strong, there is indeed a possibility for Dogecoin to rebound and challenge the 0.14 USD range.
But if it rises to 0.20 USD, then it enters the 'minefield'.
According to the liquidation chart, a whopping 11.72 billion DOGE is concentrated around 0.20 USD, which is an extremely thick sell wall.
If the market really pushes to that range, it could likely encounter a large amount of selling, causing prices to drop rapidly.
To put it bluntly, rising to 0.14 was relatively smooth, but 0.20 is a tough nut to crack.
❗ The biggest threat: It’s not that no one is buying, but the selling pressure is too heavy.
The biggest risk for Dogecoin right now is not insufficient demand, but the old holdings piled up above 'waiting to be sold'.
Especially the 11 billion DOGE concentrated trading volume, which has always hung like a giant stone over our heads.
To break through it, one of two forces is needed:
Market sentiment explosion (for example, a major rebound in the crypto market)
New capital continues to flow in (both retail and institutional forces)
Currently, retail demand is rising, but overall market sentiment is weak; pulling through that selling pressure wall in one go is difficult in the short term.
📝 Lastly, let’s summarize in plain language.
If you’ve managed to read this far, I’ll give you the simplest summary:
Dogecoin is currently in the 'bottom accumulation + on-chain warming' phase, but the resistance is too heavy; whether there will be a real big trend depends on whether it can break through that selling pressure wall at 0.20 USD.
In the short term, there may be a rebound; in the medium term, we look at capital inflow; in the long term, we still look at the overall market trend.
Not desperate, but definitely not overly optimistic.
Want a trend? Not that fast.
Want to escape the peak? It’s not time yet.
Want to catch the bottom? You’re not the only one thinking that.#DOGE
