Family, who understands! The magical degree of the crypto world always exceeds imagination. At a top industry summit in Dubai, a guest from CoinDesk wore a retro T-shirt printed with 'Old LUNA' (LUNC), which directly ignited the market. This long-dormant token surged more than 80% in 24 hours, peaking at $0.000057, with trading volume skyrocketing by 370% to break $46 million! Meanwhile, its founder Do Kwon faces 12 years in prison, and the sentencing hearing on December 11 has become the 'fate judgment day' for LUNC. This wave of 'funeral joy' operations can be called the absurd grand drama of the crypto circle this year!
First, let me highlight for the new friends: this surge in LUNC is definitely not a 'victory of a T-shirt.' There are three key underlying logics, and understanding them will help you avoid the trap of chasing highs!
First, the T-shirt is merely the 'emotional trigger'; the real driving forces are community consensus and financial resonance. As a survivor of the '40 billion disaster' of 2022, LUNC still has a loyal fanbase, and the recent good news has long been laid out: top trading platforms are continuously promoting token burns, accumulating over 59 billion LUNC burned, effectively reducing the circulating supply; the upcoming network upgrade at block height of 1866 million on December 8 is seen by the community as an 'efficiency revolution'; coupled with the media heat around the Duquan case, these three factors overlap, and a T-shirt just happened to ignite speculative sentiment. Data does not lie: on December 3, LUNC surged by 14.54% in a single day, with trading volume soaring to 154 million dollars, and the signs of capital inflow are extremely evident – this is certainly not a coincidence.
Second, the 12-year prison term for Duquan is the 'ultimate black swan' for LUNC. Some may not know that this former 'top figure in the crypto world' has already pleaded guilty. In August this year, he admitted to charges of telecom fraud, securities fraud, and agreed to pay a fine of 19 million dollars, plus 80 million dollars in civil settlement. Now the prosecution is seeking a 12-year sentence, while the lawyer is only requesting 5 years; the hearing on December 11 will directly determine two outcomes: if the judge adopts the prosecution's recommendation for a heavier sentence, it may trigger the 'bad news all out' for LUNC (after all, the worst outcome would be realized); but if the sentence is lower than expected, speculative funds are likely to continue to push prices up based on the 'judicial good news.' My personal judgment is: no matter how many years the sentence is, the core value of LUNC has not changed. Without actual application scenarios, it relies entirely on community speculation and burn stories for support; no matter how crazy the short-term fluctuations are, in the long term it remains a 'high-risk speculative product.' Friends who chase highs are advised to set strict stop-losses; don't treat the T-shirt as a 'wealth password.'
Third, beware of the trap of 'nostalgic speculation'! This surge in LUNC reminds me of the MEME coin frenzy in 2023 – the more the market lacks new hotspots, the more likely funds will turn back to speculate on 'old coins with stories.' But be cautious: LUNC has still dropped by 77.33% over the past year, falling more than 99.9% from its historical peak; even with a recent rebound of 31.58%, it is just a 'tiny fraction.' Those shouting 'LUNC will return to 1 dollar' are just as unrealistic as saying 'the national football team can win the World Cup.' The current circulating supply is still massive; it would require a 1100% increase just to reach 0.001 dollars, unless there is a disruptive technological innovation, otherwise it's merely wishful thinking.
To be frank: the cryptocurrency world is never short of absurd stories, but what it lacks is rationality and patience. This LUNC market trend is essentially a 'short-term pulse driven by emotions,' just like a summer thunderstorm – it comes quickly and goes just as fast. The hearing on December 11 will be a key point; I will track and interpret it in real time to help everyone gauge the flow of funds.
Follow me to accurately seize this wave of volatility opportunities, because in the cryptocurrency world, only those who can see through the absurdity behind the logic can truly make money.
