1. Market Performance Before the IPO
About 1-2 weeks before the SpaceX IPO, the space sector started showing early signs of movement. At that time, market liquidity was clearly trading on the anticipation of the SpaceX listing, with active stocks including RDW, ASTS, and RKLB, leading to a notable rise across the sector.
After the first wave of pumps ended, traders began to cash out profits, causing the entire space sector to continue its decline from the highs. However, just two days before the SpaceX listing, funds flowed back into the space sector again, with many stocks seeing daily increases close to 10%, particularly strong performances from ASTS and RKLB. Looking back, this wave seems more like the final speculative hype before the listing.
2. Observations on listing day
1. The sector weakened ahead of time
What’s worth noting is that the space sector had already begun to drop before SpaceX officially opened. Stocks like RDW, ASTS, RKLB showed clear selling pressure pre-market, indicating that capital had started to cash out early rather than waiting for SpaceX's opening. This is a crucial signal.
2. Changes in dark market prices
The issuance price for SpaceX was $135. In the dark market, it peaked close to $200 before dropping steadily, with one brief rebound back to around $180, but when that failed, it continued to slide, eventually hitting about $154.
The whole process shows that while the market is optimistic about SpaceX, it doesn't accept valuations above $200, with capital continuously searching for a reasonable price range.
3. Opening time delayed
Originally expected to open around 10 AM Beijing time, it ended up dragging on until nearly 11:50 AM before officially launching.
My take is that there's a significant divergence between buyers and sellers in the market, requiring more time to complete price discovery. Trading only starts once the price compresses into a range accepted by the market.
4. Official opening
Issuance price was $135, opening price at $150. Compared to the dark market high of $200, it had already dropped significantly. From the outcome, around $150 should be a price range that the market recognizes.
After the market opened, SpaceX shot up to over $160, with a market cap around $2.2 trillion. This shows that real money is still keen to buy into SpaceX itself.
3. Divergence between sectors and leaders
This is the most thought-provoking part.
SpaceX rose, but the overall space sector declined. Stocks like RDW, ASTS, RKLB saw declines exceeding 10%.
In other words, capital didn't stay in the concept stocks but returned to the true core assets.
Many thought SpaceX's listing would drive the entire space sector up, but the market's response was exactly the opposite. Capital cashed out of the concept stocks and bought into the real leaders.
4. Trading strategies for future mega IPOs
If mega IPOs like OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Figure AI emerge in the future, keep an eye on the following stages.
First, keep an eye on other stocks in the same sector. Capital usually starts speculating 1-4 weeks in advance, which presents opportunities, but you can only trade based on short-term logic and shouldn't hold long-term waiting for good news to materialize.
Next, pay close attention to the dark market. It reflects real quotes better than news does. If the dark market keeps rising, it indicates strong market sentiment; if it keeps falling, it shows that capital has started to cash out.
Third, wait for a reasonable price. If the dark market is diving from a high, don’t rush to chase; wait for the market to complete price discovery and find a fair valuation range. If the price seems fair, you can participate with a small position to observe, rather than going all-in on the bet.
Fourth, watch the sector's response. If the entire sector is down right after the IPO, focus on who stops falling first, who rebounds strongest, and who can turn green first. Such stocks are often the leaders in the subsequent sector run-up, as strong stocks are easier for capital to identify in a weak environment.
For example, if RDW drops 8%, ASTS drops 5%, but RKLB only drops 2% and then turns green first, RKLB is likely the focus of capital in the sector and should be tracked closely.
5. The biggest takeaway from this SpaceX IPO
This SpaceX listing taught me one thing: the market makes money on expectations, not on the actual news hitting.
The sector started climbing before the IPO, not on the actual listing day. Once it officially launched, real capital was more focused on who the true core assets were and who was just riding the hype.
So in the future, when facing mega IPOs, it's smart to pre-position in the sector, but one must understand when to cash out. The true focus of long-term research should always be the main player in the listing.
Also, observe who in the sector is the most resilient and who rebounds fastest, as they often represent the main direction for capital in the next phase.