On Friday, global funds seemed to be muted. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching, traders moved their mouse to the 'short' side, and the K-line on the screen instantly lost elasticity: the dollar dipped 0.1%, gold rose by 4 dollars, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points — all fluctuations compressed into a 'toothpick' range, and trading volume shrank to a recent low.
Market discussions have quickly shifted from 'good or bad data' to 'central bank division': the Federal Reserve may pause again, while the Bank of Japan stands on the red carpet of negative interest rate exports. The crossroads of these two policy trajectories is the eye of the tornado of global liquidity repricing.
Gold has become the quietest center of the whirlpool. After breaking through the symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart, it didn't rush to sprint; instead, it laid a 'carpet' below the 4260 dollar ceiling — the 4-hour cycle is sticking to the 20-period moving average, with alternating candlesticks forming a horizontal electrocardiogram. Bulls have not retreated, bears have not gathered, both sides are waiting for the sound of the starting gun.
In the technical drawer, there are two keys:
1. Breaking above 4260, buying pressure will directly pull the gold price to 4300, and above that is the previous high of 4338;
2. Losing 4150, the 100-period moving average at 4140 is the first sponge mat, falling below it invalidates the triangle breakout, and the bulls turn from defense to offense.
The strategy minimizes noise:
For a pullback to 4175-4150, gradually build a light long position, with a stop loss at 4135, and a target of 4255-4260;
If a solid bullish candlestick closes above 4260, increase the position to chase up to 4300-4338.
During the interest rate meeting week, do not bet on data, only bet on direction — before the central bank speaks, let the position stand guard for the ears. $BTC
