The analytical company Capital Economics has presented an updated forecast for the global economy for 2026. The report highlights five key macro trends that, according to experts, will put pressure on financial markets, change the structure of global trade, and may become determining factors for the dynamics of risky assets — including cryptocurrencies.
2025 has become a period of increasing uncertainty: acceleration of AI technologies, instability in China, revision of trade agreements, and increasing fiscal risks. Against this backdrop, investors expect no less volatility from 2026.
AI will continue to stimulate the US economy and markets — but the risk of a bubble is increasing
Capital Economics notes that artificial intelligence remains the main driver of economic growth in the USA. The effect of AI implementation allowed the US GDP to add about 0.5 percentage points in the first half of 2025. Analysts expect the positive impact to remain in 2026, mainly due to increased capital investments in AI infrastructure, including data centers and energy-intensive computing systems.
GDP forecasts for 2026:
USA — 2.5% (above average market expectations)
Eurozone — 1.0%
United Kingdom — 1.2%
Growth in Europe will be more restrained due to the slow adoption of new technologies and cautious investment policies.
Risks of overheating in the technology sector
The stock market continues to see an active inflow of capital into AI-related companies. Despite high multiples, experts believe that the bubble has not yet reached critical levels similar to the dot-com era.
Capital Economics expects that the S&P 500 index may reach 8,000 points by the end of 2026 if corporate profit growth continues.
Influence on the crypto market: historically, cryptocurrencies show a strong correlation with the technology sector in the USA. The growing interest in AI companies may support overall risk appetite and enhance capital inflow into the digital asset market.
China remains a weak link in the global economy: low growth, deflation, and structural challenges
Despite attempts to catch up with the USA in the field of artificial intelligence, the Chinese economy continues to face systemic problems. The supply-oriented model creates an excess of production capacity, puts pressure on domestic demand, and intensifies deflationary processes.
GDP forecast for China: about 3% in 2026.
The situation is exacerbated by the decline in yields on Chinese bonds — for the first time, 10-year Chinese papers have fallen below Japanese ones. Investors increasingly view China as a source of global deflationary impulse.
Influence on the crypto market:
Weak consumer demand in China limits the inflow of capital into risky assets;
Deflationary pressure reduces forecasts for global liquidity growth;
Restrictions on cryptocurrencies in China remain.
US-China trade war: the agreement is temporary, risks are long-term
Despite achieving a temporary agreement between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, analysts at Capital Economics warn that the trade war is not over. Tensions could resume as early as the end of 2026.
Risk factors:
the action of the agreement is limited to one year;
the USA's dependence on tariff revenues is increasing;
global supply chains continue to shift away from China;
possible changes in USMCA may complicate the use of Mexico to circumvent tariffs.
Influence on the crypto market:
Trade conflicts often increase volatility and demand for alternative assets. Against the backdrop of global trade disruptions, investors may increase their share of cryptocurrencies as a risk hedging tool.
Central banks will begin to lower rates, but the Fed will act more slowly than the market expects
Capital Economics believes that the easing of monetary policy will continue, but the pace will differ in various regions.
USA
With inflation around 3%, the Fed is unlikely to sharply cut rates.
Forecast for 2026: a range of 3.25–3.50% with only one rate cut for the year.
This may cause disagreements between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, as the White House is interested in cheaper liquidity.
Other regions
The Eurozone and the UK may cut rates more than market expectations.
Brazil has room for more aggressive easing.
The Bank of Japan, on the contrary, may raise the rate to 1.25%.
Influence on $BTC crypto market:
lower rates support interest in risky assets
the rise of the dollar may put pressure on cryptocurrency prices
Japan's policy affects Asian liquidity, which is important for the crypto market
Fiscal risks remain a key threat to markets in 2026
The USA, the UK, and France enter 2026 with a combination of high debt and significant budget deficits. This creates conditions for short-term spikes in volatility.
Possible triggers:
elections in France in 2027
possible change of power in the United Kingdom
weakening of the influence of key politicians in the USA
unexpected budget disruptions in the USA or EU
Capital Economics notes that rates and financial suppression measures may limit the risks of a debt crisis, but sharp sell-offs in debt markets are likely.
Influence on $ETH crypto market:
Fiscal instability traditionally increases interest in alternative assets, including decentralized capital storage systems.
Outcome: what is important for participants in the digital asset market
2026 will be a period when several powerful macro trends are simultaneously in effect:
The rapid development of AI supports risk appetite, which may positively impact cryptocurrencies.
China's weakness intensifies deflationary pressure, reducing global liquidity.
The US-China trade war remains a key source of volatility.
The Fed's slow rate cuts may limit market growth.
Fiscal risks of major economies create additional uncertainty.
For investors and traders, it is important to consider that the macroeconomic picture of 2026 will be extremely heterogeneous. High volatility is expected, and any changes in trade policy, Fed rates, or the Chinese economy may quickly reflect on the dynamics of cryptocurrencies and other risky assets.
