Keep an eye on this index! Once it breaks the previous high, will the altcoin season really be upon us?

The market is speculating about the altcoin season, but the true "starting gun" may not be in the crypto world, but in the traditional market—the Russell 2000 index (U.S. small-cap stocks) is about to challenge its historical high!

To put it simply: It's like a wave. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index is the "crest," and it will surge first, allowing the "splash" of altcoins in the crypto market to follow. Now, the crest is about to reach the highest point of 2021.

🔥 The historical script is eerily similar. Let's look at the last cycle: the Russell 2000 and the total market capitalization of altcoins both peaked in November 2021 and then laid flat in a bear market for more than two years. Now, it is about to touch that ceiling again. If it can break through strongly this time, it is very likely to replicate history and sound the horn for a super bull market in 2025-2026.

🔥 Perfect timing for a launch? Recently, the "10/10 flash crash" has cleaned out market leverage, and panic sentiment is rampant. Historically, after such a "double kill of bulls and bears, a dead silence," it often marks the starting point of a parabolic market surge without resistance, shooting straight to the clouds.

"Shadow theory": The Russell 2000 is like the "shadow" of altcoins in the traditional market. The shadow moves first, and the body will eventually catch up. If the shadow can create a historical new high, it indicates that the market's risk appetite (especially for small-cap, high-growth assets) has fully returned, and this flood will inevitably spill over into the crypto world.

⚠️ Risk Warning: Don't be the fool who seeks the sword by the boat

1. Correlation is not causation: The shadow may move, but the body may have its own rhythm. It cannot be treated as a 100% accurate prophetic crystal ball.

2. Breakthroughs may fail: If the Russell 2000 encounters resistance at a critical point and falls back, it will also dampen global risk sentiment and cast a shadow over altcoin rises.

3. The crypto market has its own cycles: Halving, regulation, and other internal factors may have a greater influence.

In short, if you are waiting for the altcoin season, you must start adding the Russell 2000 to your watchlist now. Its breakthrough will be the best "trend forecast" for altcoin movements in the coming weeks.

May your altcoin positions be able to wait for this feast ignited by the traditional market.