📊 MOVEMENT COMPARISON
Previous Variable Current Change
Price 2.0329 2.0501 +0.0172 (+0.85%)
24h high 2.0491 2.0727 +0.0236 (new peak)
Distance to EMA(7) Below ABOVE Structural change
24h Volume (USDT) 449.44M 471.65M +22.21M (recovery)
🎯 SCENARIO PROBABILITIES
1. BULLISH CONTINUATION TOWARDS EMA(25) → 60%
Arguments in favor:
· ✅ Price SURPASSED EMA(7) (2.0454) - FIRST BULLISH SIGNAL
· ✅ Daily high extended to 2.0727 (previously 2.0491)
· ✅ Volume slightly increased (participation signal)
· ✅ Order book with imbalance: 53.29% buys vs 46.71% sells
· ✅ Price closed at daily highs (2.0501 vs 2.0500 mark)
Key levels:
· Immediate resistance: EMA(25) at 2.0765
· Short target: 2.0727 (daily high)
2. REJECTION AT EMA(25) AND LATERALIZATION → 30%
Arguments in favor:
· ⚠️ EMA(25) remains bearish (2.0765) and is strong resistance
· ⚠️ Insufficient volume for a strong breakout (+22M is not significant)
· ⚠️ Large sell wall at 2.0530 (1.1M USDT in order book)
· ⚠️ Overall trend remains bearish (higher EMAs)
Probable range: 2.0450 - 2.0765
3. IMMEDIATE BEARISH REVERSAL → 10%
Only if:
· ❌ Loses EMA(7) at 2.0454 with volume
· ❌ Breaks support 2.0496 (buy zone in order book)
· ❌ Volume will dry up in the next candles
📊 DEEP ORDER BOOK ANALYSIS
STRONG SUPPORT ZONES (Accumulated buying):
· 2.0480-2.0490: ~200K USDT in purchases
· 2.0500: Defended psychological level
· 2.0476-2.0479: ~371K USDT - strong support
KEY RESISTANCES (Accumulated selling):
· 2.0530: BIGGEST WALL - 1.1M USDT (main obstacle)
· 2.0529: 459K USDT
· 2.0520-2.0525: ~300K USDT
INTERPRETATION:
· Bulls control 2.0500 but face massive resistance at 2.0530
· To advance, they need to absorb 1.1M USDT in sales at 2.0530
· Supports are solid up to 2.0476 (~570K USDT accumulated)
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📈 NEW KEY LEVELS
CRITICAL SUPPORTS:
1. 2.0496 (order book) - First technical support
2. 2.0476 (strong order book) - Main support
3. EMA(7) 2.0454 - Dynamic support
RESISTANCES:
1. 2.0530 (WALL) - Main obstacle
2. EMA(25) 2.0765 - Realistic target
3. 2.0727 (daily high) - Immediate resistance
✅ CURRENT RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR LONG POSITIONS:
1. Protect partial profits at 2.0700-2.0765
2. Stop loss below 2.0450 (EMA7)
3. Observe volume in the attempt to break 2.0530
FOR NEW ENTRIES:
· Wait for pullback to 2.0476-2.0496 for better prices
· Enter only if volume supports
· Target: 2.0765 (EMA25)
ALERT SIGNALS:
· 🔴 If it loses 2.0454 → exit longs
· 🟡 If volume drops in the next candles → take profits
· 🟢 If it exceeds 2.0530 with volume → target 2.0765
📌 PROBABILISTIC CONCLUSION
Most probable scenario (60%):
The price will try to reach EMA(25) at 2.0765, finding resistance at 2.0727 and especially at 2.0765. Moderate bullish movement with possible rejections.
Management: Take partial profits at resistance, maintain tight stops. The level 2.0530 is key for bullish momentum.
Do you agree? The break of EMA(7) is the first step, but the real battle will be at 2.0530 and EMA(25).
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