After listening to Teacher Murad share 116 reasons in a recent podcast, he believes that the current cryptocurrency bull market has not yet ended and may continue until 2026.
Teacher Murad's core points and reasoning are as follows:
Core Conclusion: This bull market cycle may break the traditional 4-year pattern, extending to 2026. $BTC is expected to initiate a parabolic rise after a correction, targeting between $150,000 and $200,000.
Market Condition Analysis: Recently, Bitcoin has dropped from $125,000 to $80,000, primarily due to short-term traders selling off, macro uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown, and some early holders engaging in 'protest selling.' However, multiple indicators show that the market has begun to signal capitulation, and it may be forming a mid-term bottom.
Bullish Reasons Summary:
Technical Indicators Oversold: The weekly and daily RSI are at multi-year lows, the MACD indicator shows historical lows, and prices are testing long-term ascending channel support.
On-Chain Signals Positive: Short-term holders are suffering significant losses, historic large outflows of funds from exchanges have occurred, and the net profit and loss indicators have bottomed out, indicating that selling pressure may be exhausted.
Derivatives and Sentiment: Liquidations are mainly short positions, funding rates have turned negative, the fear and greed index has dropped to 10, and market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, which is often a precursor to a reversal.
ETF and Institutional Behavior: Among Bitcoin ETF holders, 98% are 'diamond hands,' with strong confidence in long-term holding; the proportion of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs continues to rise, bringing sustained potential for fiat inflows.
Macroeconomic Policy Support: The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, the U.S. government has a friendly attitude, and potential fiscal stimulus (such as issuing checks) may inject liquidity into the market.
