Against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's statements about a 'resilient labor market,' the statistics paint a very different picture. The USA 🇺🇸 is experiencing one of the largest waves of corporate layoffs in the last decade — and this is already starting to seep into the crypto market through the channel of global liquidity.
🔥 The scale of the problem: figures that cannot be ignored
According to updated data:
307,000 layoffs in the public sector
UPS — 48,000
Amazon — 30,000
Intel — 24,000
Nestle — 16,000
Verizon — 15,000
Accenture — 11,000
Ford — 11,000
Microsoft — 7,000
Yes, part of these layoffs are not "pure unemployment" (there are internal transitions and retirements), but the trend is clear: the labor market is cooling rapidly.
For the crypto market, this means one thing: we are approaching a fork where each scenario gives its own impulse to price trends.
📉 Scenario 1: "Cold"
Recession fears → risk-off → pressure on BTC and altcoins
If the market interprets the wave of cuts as a sign of an upcoming recession — this creates a classic risk-off:
▪️ Less consumer spending
The USA — an economy where 65% of GDP is formed by consumption. Less confidence among people → less spending → less company revenues.
▪️ Decline in corporate profits
Cooling demand always ends the same: investors exit risk assets.
▪️ The Fed may not rush to cut rates
As long as inflation hasn't returned to 2%, Powell can maintain a tough rhetoric.
🎯 Potential consequences:
BTC may test $87k–$90k
ETH — returning to the zones $2,900–$3,100
Altcoins — traditionally deeper corrections
This scenario does not crash the market — but makes it nervous, sharp, and unstable.
🚀 Scenario 2: "Soft Policy Light"
Weaker labor market → more chances for rate cuts → liquidity returns to risk
This scenario is the complete opposite of the first.
▪️ PCE stable
▪️ Consumer sentiment is rising
▪️ Inflation expectations are decreasing
The combo that gives the Fed the perfect reason to pause or even signal a rate cut in 2026.
As soon as the market catches a whiff of cheap money — crypto reacts first.
🎯 Potential consequences:
BTC is returning above $103k–$110k
ETH gains momentum under the ETF factor — zone $3,300–$3,500
Altcoins are coming alive as part of the rotation from the tech sector
This scenario fits perfectly into our previous analysis:
The crypto market now directly depends on liquidity, and liquidity depends on the Fed's actions.
🎛 Base scenario from Moon Man 567
60% probability — a soft positive for crypto
40% — short-term risk-off
The situation is atypical:
a strained labor market is both a problem for the economy and a signal for potential stimuli.
The Fed cannot ignore:
✔️ stable PCE
✔️ growth in consumer sentiment
✔️ decrease in inflation expectations
This creates conditions for BTC to become the first asset to "bounce back" from the bottom of the macro cycle.
🚀 Conclusion Moon Man 567
Everyone talks about layoffs as a threat. But in macroeconomics, a threat often becomes an opportunity.
Today we stand exactly at this threshold.
For the crypto market, the decisive factor will not be the fact of cuts, but the Fed's reaction in the coming weeks to the changes in the labor market structure.
🔹 Scenario 1 — temporary pressure, but controlled.
🔹 Scenario 2 — potential restart of the cycle with new liquidity.
📌 As always, Moon Man 567 strategy: don't panic, but prepare. Balance, diversification, working with levels, not emotions.
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