Analysis
1. Gradual unlocking of tokens (Bearish impact)
Overview:
CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC – entities affiliated with Trump – hold 800 million TRUMP (80% of the total supply), which will be gradually released until 2027. The current circulating supply is 199 million.
In clear:
The issuance of new tokens risks diluting the price. Each unlocking phase could exert downward pressure on prices if demand does not absorb the additional liquidity. For example, the price of TRUMP fell by 86% from its all-time high of $73 in January 2025, following the first unlockings (CoinMarketCap).
2. Political catalysts and regulatory risks (mitigated impact)
Overview:
Trump thrives on his pro-crypto rhetoric (for example, his promises of 'Bitcoin superpower'), but is under scrutiny for alleged conflicts of interest. House Democrats accuse Trump of using politics to enrich his family's cryptocurrency businesses (Financial Times).
In plain terms:
bullish outlook if Trump passes favorable laws (e.g., tax relief for cryptocurrencies) or wins the 2026 midterm elections; bearish outlook if lawsuits or bad press erode confidence.
3. Whale-related volatility (high risk)
Overview:
The top 10 portfolios hold about 45% of the TRUMP supply. A recent example is a whale that sold 4,17 million TRUMP (46.9 million dollars) on Binance/OKX in June 2025, causing a price drop of 10% (Bitcoinist).
In plain terms:
low liquidity (turnover rate: 0.13) amplifies volatility. Retail investors are exposed to asymmetric risk related to coordinated massive sell-offs or insider accumulation of securities.
Conclusion
The price of TRUMP depends on the balance between political dynamics, tokenomics, and regulatory pitfalls. While Trump's political announcements could lead to short-term spikes, the multi-year deconfinement timeline and concentration risks make sustainable gains unlikely without broader utility. Key question: will retail investors anticipate the next deconfinement (Q1 2026) or will they capitulate in the face of dilution?$TRUMP
