I witnessed the cryptocurrency market wake up from the illusion of a high point of 126K this week. The "Black Monday" on December 1st directly knocked me awake—on that day, $BTC BTC plummeted from an opening of 90K to 83K, a drop of 8%, and ETH also fell sharply by 10%, with the entire market experiencing a liquidation of 985 million, leaving 270,000 people embarrassed as they exited. It felt like being hit with a blunt object: clearly, in November, it pretended to be prosperous, how could it crash just like that?

Later, I reviewed the reasons and realized this was a triple whammy of macro factors + leverage + selling pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations were halved from 92% to 50%, and everyone suddenly realized that inflation isn't so easy to cool down, with liquidity tightening at the margins; the yen arbitrage unwinding was like dominoes, global risk aversion spread, and when the NASDAQ turned green, it amplified the high beta attributes of cryptocurrencies; coupled with MicroStrategy reducing purchases by 93% and BlackRock's 120M BTC FUD entering the exchange, institutional year-end closures + tax season selling pressure all came together, directly blowing up the long positions with an open interest of 160 billion.

This crash reminded me of the FTX incident in 2022, but this time it was a lot more buffered—institutions accounted for 60%, the hash rate was steadily up by 5.3%, and the MVRV of 1.55 indicated undervaluation. In the short term, I see 90K as support; if it can't hold, it might test 80K; but in the medium term, I'm optimistic, with the Fed report being dovish (December 6) + Japan's tax reform unlocking a trillion yen + ETH Fusaka upgrade (L2 fees down 60%), these positives will pull up a rebound; the historical average increase of 9.7% in December isn't without reason.

In short, this crash is not a restart of a bear market but rather the "harshest cleansing" before a bull market—I have already increased my holdings at lower prices, preparing to wait for institutional buy signals to sustain. Dips are opportunities, but don't go all in, be rational and do your own research; the bull market is still on the way!

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