Many people are still focused on the $0.5 resistance,

but what the market is really paying attention to now is who will exit first.

On-chain data has already provided the answer:

a large holder transferred 16 million $MERL to Bybit.

Such capital movements are very straightforward—

if they don't see the trend continuing, they will prepare to cash out in advance.

The price structure is also deteriorating in tandem.

The $0.5 level has failed to break through three times, indicating that the main players are not willing to continue pushing it up.

Each time the price approaches the upper resistance level, trading volume increases but no breakthrough occurs,

resulting in: hesitant buying and faster selling pressure.

Next comes the part the market is most worried about:

70 million tokens will be unlocked in December,

four critical days are densely packed.

Even if it’s not a real dump,

“anticipated selling pressure” is enough to trigger early position reductions,

causing active liquidity to continue to shrink.

Sentiment has quietly completed its shift:

from “how high can it break through”

to “can the rebound still run?”

This is not a sudden negative news,

but rather all negative factors starting to concentrate at the same time.

Capital understands this point, so they are exiting first.

When large holders rush to exit, resistance remains unbroken, and unlocking is imminent,

the short-term logic leaves only one direction:

First protect positions, then talk about the market.

The current question is not where the high point is,

but rather—

how many people are still queuing to exit.