China's confidence in responding to the joint efforts of the US and Japan lies not in the number of aircraft carriers, but in a set of "Anti-Access/Area Denial" systems!

The US and Japan challenge China? A rare admission of defeat from a US general, the Asia-Pacific situation is at a turning point. In early 2025, a four-star general from the US publicly declared, “If a conflict arises between China and the US, we are confident of victory,” which briefly became international headlines. However, less than six months later, Singapore's Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen poured cold water on this at the Shangri-La Dialogue: “The US cannot stop China's rise; war will only disrupt global trade.” Even more interestingly, the US military quietly withdrew 9,000 Marines from Okinawa, Japan, relocating them to Guam, exposing a vulnerability of the US military—they have begun to fear the missile range of China's Rocket Force.

Japan appears to be more proactive than the US. After the new Prime Minister, Kishi Nobuo, took office, he bluntly stated that Japan would “intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait” and deployed missiles on the southwestern islands, expanded ammunition depots, and even mobilized 100,000 troops to practice contingency plans for “emergencies in the Taiwan Strait.” Japan's submarine forces plan to lay ambushes in the East China Sea and Bashi Channel, attempting to use the Soryu-class submarines to intercept Chinese aircraft carriers. However, the reality is that Japan's military strength is only the fifth largest in the world, and most of its 200 F-15J fighter jets are outdated compared to China's J-20, while the US can only deploy around 120 fifth-generation fighters in the Western Pacific, less than half the number of China's stealth fighters. China's confidence in countering the US-Japan alliance does not rely on the number of aircraft carriers but on a set of "Anti-Access/Area Denial" systems.

Based on the emergence of the Dongfeng-21D, it is generally believed that its range has exceeded 1,500 kilometers, and there are even claims that it can hit moving aircraft carriers at sea, while the Dongfeng-26 has a coverage range of over 4,000 kilometers, even reaching the Guam base far across the Pacific. Even more astonishing, the Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile can instantly bypass all existing missile defense systems and strike its target directly. However, with the continuous improvement of China's satellite network and drones, the tactics that the US once used to carry out guerrilla warfare across various islands in the Pacific have gradually become difficult to conceal. More critically, in terms of wartime potential, it is evident that the US shipbuilding industry has already declined drastically, with only eight large shipyards remaining, while China's shipbuilding tonnage has an annual production capacity of 230 million tons. Although Japan's industry has developed, its steel production is far inferior to that of China, and its wartime submarine fleet consists of only 22 vessels, relying on US logistics.

With the gradual improvement of China's fortification in the South China Sea in recent years, especially with the recent completion of major projects in the “Sansha” series, such as over 3,000 fortified hangars along China's coast and radar arrays on artificial islands in the South China Sea, they have now preliminarily possessed the capability to deliver a devastating first strike against the US and Japan. The US-Japan alliance seems solid but is essentially a case of sleeping in the same bed but dreaming different dreams. The US hopes Japan will be at the forefront, while Japan wants to seize the opportunity to break through its pacifist constitution and expand its military power. This mutually exploitative relationship is prone to rupture in the face of real conflict. As Singapore's Defense Minister stated, “When container ships stop, chip factories and automotive lines have to cease operations; no one dares to bet on this cost.” History has long proven that provoking trouble at someone else's doorstep ultimately cannot withstand the defense of those guarding their own home.