We thought the future would worry about 'economic crises'—but what looms over us is more like a global debt crisis.
How heavy are the 'IOUs' of various countries? When you lay out the top ten, you will find that the scale of the problem is far more exaggerated than imagined:
United States: $38.376 trillion
China: $16.549 trillion
Japan: $12.494 trillion
United Kingdom: $4.304 trillion
France: $4.144 trillion
Italy: $4.024 trillion
India: $3.797 trillion
Germany: $3.656 trillion
Canada: $2.760 trillion
Brazil: $2.250 trillion
What’s even more heartbreaking is the average debt:
United States $112,000
Japan $99,000
Italy $67,000
Canada $66,000
United Kingdom $62,000
This is just 'the current figure'.
What about the future?
As interest compounds continuously and the fiscal structure continues to deteriorate, these debts will only become larger and grow faster.
International institutions have repeatedly reminded that the interest costs of various countries are rapidly rising—this means that debt repayment pressure will become a long-term ailment rather than a one-time event.
It is precisely for this reason that the narrative of Bitcoin has become different in the past few years.
It is no longer just as simple as 'hedging against inflation'; rather, it has gradually added a layer of new imagination:
Long-term, structural 'sovereign debt risk hedging'.
If a country's debt has become so large that it cannot rely on traditional means to handle it, then it is not absurd for the world to start trying to treat BTC as a reserve asset.
More and more sovereign funds are beginning to tentatively allocate BTC, which is essentially in line with a new narrative of 'the U.S. monetizing debt with BTC':
Covering unpayable old debts with more diffuse assets.
Some say BTC is a bubble.
But the question is—how can the global economy itself not operate on bubbles?
The way of the modern economic system is to continuously create bigger bubbles that encapsulate the old ones.
This is not sarcasm; it's reality.
However, one point must be particularly noted:
Debt-driven BTC increases are not a short-term phenomenon.
Don't treat it as a talisman that 'rises with crises'.
In the first phase of a debt problem outbreak, the market usually first goes to leverage, and risk assets are under pressure together; BTC is also hard to stand alone.
but from a longer time dimension, as long as countries are still using 'higher debt to roll over older debts',
As long as the fiscal deficit has not fundamentally improved,
As long as interest costs continue to rise—
Then the world will continue to push 'scarce assets' to more important positions.
The 'backup plan logic' of BTC will become increasingly difficult to erase.
Short term is volatility, long term is trend.
The debt snowball keeps getting bigger, and this main line becomes clearer.
