$BTC $ETH Cryptocurrency market time window is approaching! Powell's "hawkish counterattack" may trigger market turbulence

The market is generally focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, but the real risk may lie in Powell's speech at 3:30 AM. This interest rate cut seems more like a passive compromise—previously, Powell has repeatedly sent clear signals of "not inclined to cut rates too early," but now, under multiple pressures, he is forced to cut rates. His subsequent speech is highly likely to reshape market expectations with an extreme hawkish stance, paving the way for a pause in rate cuts. This statement is very likely to trigger severe market fluctuations.

1. Risk signals behind interest rate cuts

1. Interest rates have reached a neutral range: After this interest rate cut, rates will drop to 3.5%, a level close to the past normal interest rate range, moving away from the category of "restrictive rates." The Federal Reserve's policy space for further rate cuts has significantly narrowed.

2. Inverse constraints of inflation and the economy: Current inflation data continues to rise to 3%, significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's **2%** core target; at the same time, the U.S. economy remains resilient. With these dual factors, the Federal Reserve lacks an objective basis for continuing to ease, which is also highly consistent with Powell's previous policy stance.

3. Market impact of hawkish speeches: Powell is likely to reinforce the expressions of "inflation resilience" and "policy prudence" in his speech, using hawkish wording to suppress market expectations for further rate cuts. This expectation gap is very likely to trigger panic corrections in risk assets.