Let's talk about the cruelest game rule in this circle, called 'jumping the gun.' Just look at the current $MERL market; it's practically the most vivid textbook example of this rule. Why do I say that? Because all discerning people have seen the unlocking flood in mid-December, which reached as high as 70 million coins. It's like everyone knows there's going to be a storm here in a few days, so let me ask you, when will the smartest person gather their clothes? Definitely not when the raindrops start falling, but right now, while it’s still not completely dark, quickly gather the clothes. This is the fundamental reason why prices have been consistently declining and rebounding weakly recently — because the smart money has already retreated in advance.

Just look at today's large on-chain transaction, where 16 million $MERL was transferred to Bybit exchange. This action is truly classic, classic enough to be included in the case library of operators' strategies. Why doesn't this big player wait a few days to transfer? Because he knows that when the unlocking days of the 12th and 15th really arrive, the sell orders in the exchange will pile up like a mountain, and by then, it will be impossible to sell, with slippage large enough to break his heart. So, he chooses to leave now, even if the current price is slightly lower than a few days ago, at least there is still liquidity, at least transactions can still be made. This is the wisdom of big funds; they would rather make less profit to ensure a safe exit.

In contrast, many of our retail friends are really anxious about their current state. Many are still looking at the K-line chart for support, thinking that since it has dropped so much, it should rebound, right? Wondering if that position at 0.5 dollars can still push up a bit? This kind of thinking may not be wrong at ordinary times, but on the eve of such a complete supply-demand imbalance, it is very dangerous. The current market is like a pond that has been drained of water, with fish struggling. The buying pressure is pitifully scarce; even a slight selling pressure can smash the price down a notch. Moreover, you must understand that those 70 million coins about to be unlocked are like dozens of tons of cement hanging over your head; once they fall, the thin buy orders below are simply not enough to look at.