I never sang for others to take over my $BTC; instead, I have my own logic.

In my own cyclical framework, Bitcoin's current major market movement has actually completed its first wave. The core narrative of this first wave is quite simple: value storage / value transfer — the story of digital gold has fully penetrated global consensus.

So how will it proceed next? It needs to be analyzed from a macro narrative perspective.

For the second wave's general direction, I am more inclined towards: value creation / application scenarios landing.

The BTC ecosystem is truly starting to have usable elements, not just lying around like gold.

L2, protocol layer applications, lightning network expansion, asset issuance, on-chain yields... these narratives will be the focus of the next stage.

However, this narrative cannot be completed in half a year or a year.

I believe the second wave will take at least 5 years, and it’s not unusual for it to go on for 10 years.

A mature ecosystem is never built on slogans; it is built over time.

But what will happen before the second wave starts?

There will definitely be a very realistic and rational return period for the first wave — that is, a medium to large correction.

My judgment for this cycle is:

This period will likely undergo a decline/oscillation lasting over 6 months.

It’s not destruction; it’s cooling down. It’s about washing away the overly optimistic expectations and bringing the market back to a solid construction phase.

The final third wave is the ultimate narrative of Bitcoin:

A global settlement network.

When it truly replaces stablecoins in settlement roles, substitutes gold, replaces SWIFT... that will be the day when Bitcoin becomes the unified valuation unit globally.

And this won't happen in the first half of our era; it is likely to occur in the latter half of this century.

The Dow Jones' movements over the past 130 years have actually been pushed up by three major narratives: industrialization, technologization, and the internet and AI. Now these main lines have basically run their course, and the major stories of the US are nearing their end.

The main narrative of the next century will likely not occur in the traditional world but will shift to the blockchain. Especially with Bitcoin, it seems more like the underlying layer of future value systems — a story that the US has been telling for over a hundred years, whereas Bitcoin has just begun its prologue.

The real story may still just be the prologue.