The current date is December 7, 2025, and the current price of Solana (SOL) is approximately 131.61-133 USD (based on data from CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko), down about 0.5%-1% in the last 24 hours, down 1.8% over the past 7 days, and down 12.1% over the past 30 days. The market capitalization is approximately 65 billion USD, ranking 6th, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 6 billion USD. The overall performance in 2025 has been volatile: the peak at the beginning of the year was around 223.50 USD (in January), a mid-year pullback to around 120 USD, a rebound to 142 USD in November, but after opening at 134 USD in December, it quickly fell back to a low of 123 USD, and is currently in a consolidation state. The Fear & Greed index is 23 (extreme fear), RSI(14) is about 58 (neutral to bullish), and the MACD shows a bullish crossover signal, but the overall market is weighed down by BTC's dominance (>55%) and macroeconomic uncertainty. A review of historical and recent trends.
In the first half of 2025: SOL rose from about 100 USD at the beginning of the year to an ATH of 223.50 USD, driven by DeFi TVL growth (reaching 12 billion USD) and meme coin frenzy, but a network congestion incident in May-June caused a pullback to 150 USD.
In the second half: The first U.S. SOL staking ETF (REX-Osprey SSK) launched in July, with institutional inflows of 101.7 million USD, but the price fell from 133 USD to 123 USD (end of November), a cumulative drop of 30%. November rebounded 18%, testing the 140-160 USD resistance box, but macro panic on December 1 (BTC fell below 91K USD) led to a -9% flash crash.
From December to date (as of the 7th): Opened at 134 USD, low of 123 USD on the 1st, rebound of +9%-10% to 139 USD on the 2-3rd, currently oscillating in the 130-135 USD range. Early trading volume surged to over 6B USD, with an average TPS of 70K, indicating a rebound in network activity.
From feedback in the X community, December sentiment is polarized: Bulls focus on the Breakpoint meeting (mid-December) and Firedancer upgrade testnet, predicting 150+ USD EOM; Bears worry about BTC correlation and long-term holders cashing out, warning that if it breaks 130 USD, it will slide to 120-100 USD. Semantic search shows that positive posts make up about 60%, such as 'SOL rebounds to 155-165 USD in December, MACD bullish.' Technical analysis and key indicators show SOL currently forming a double bottom pattern (support at 120 USD), neck line at 145 USD. If it breaks through, it will confirm bullish; otherwise, a head and shoulders or rounded top pattern may activate downwards. The lower Bollinger Band at 125.68 USD is a key support, while the upper band at 146.91 USD is recent resistance. Below is a simplified line chart based on historical monthly data (sampled from key points in 2025) showing price trends (data source: CoinCodex and InvestingHaven, sampled median monthly, about 20 points for brevity):
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Charts show that the December projection is based on current momentum and analyst median (155 USD), if the Breakpoint catalyst occurs, it may reach 165 USD. SOL/ETH ratio 0.05, indicating altcoin dominance potential. Price prediction: December trend outlook based on multi-source algorithms and technical indicators, December SOL trend appears moderately bullish, but highly dependent on BTC (currently 91K USD) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The forecast is layered as follows:
Scenario
Probability
Price range by end of December
Key trigger factors
ROI (from current 131 USD)
Bullish
55%
155-225 USD
Successful Breakpoint meeting, ETF net inflow >50M USD, BTC >95K USD. Historical average for December +7.28% (2023 +71%).
+18% ~ +72%
Neutral
30%
132-155 USD
Consolidation continues, network upgrades boost TVL but macro pressures (interest rate fluctuations) limit it. CryptoPredictions average 232 USD, but a conservative adjustment.
+1% ~ +18%
Bearish
15%
100-130 USD
BTC bear market continues, breaks 125 USD support, institutional sell-off. CoinCodex short-term to 139 USD, but may test 130 USD over the weekend.
-24% ~ -1%
Short-term (December 7-15): Target 139-144 USD (+6-10%), if the MACD histogram remains green.
Medium-term (end of December): Median prediction 155-165 USD (Blockchain.news), aggressive targets like CoinRepublic aim for 250 USD (based on upgrades and December seasonality). Long-term 2026: If ETF approved and Firedancer mainnet, target 300-500 USD.
Volatility: Expected 7.74% (past 30 days), whale holdings at 40%, easy to amplify swings.
Drivers and Risks
Positive Factors:
Ecological growth: DeFi TVL at 120B USD, meme coins/AI/gaming dApps surging; the Breakpoint meeting (December) could be a catalyst.
Institutional adoption: Staking reached 3.1M SOL, Vanguard unlocked 50 million customers; strong inflow into SOL ETF.
Technical upgrades: Firedancer testnet improves TPS >100K, enhancing scalability.
Seasonality: Historically, December is often a rebound month, with trading interest up 15% week-over-week.
Risks:
Macro pressures: Uncertainty in interest rates, global economic recession; SOL has high correlation with BTC (>0.8).
Network issues: Historical congestion or security incidents may recur.
Market sentiment: Under extreme fear, long-term holders cashing out may exacerbate selling pressure; warnings on X about head and shoulders pattern down to 100 USD.
Regulation: Uncertainty in SOL's classification as a security affects institutional confidence.
Summary: The SOL trend in December 2025 is expected to primarily rebound moderately, supported by ecological vitality and institutional inflows, but macro risks should be monitored. If it holds the support at 130 USD and breaks through 145 USD, a target of 150-200 USD by year-end is possible; otherwise, it may test 120 USD. As an L1 leader (TPS leading), SOL has great long-term potential, but high volatility in the short term. Do your own research before investing; the crypto market is highly risky and this is not financial advice.
