After so many years of trading, I have developed an almost instinctive intuition for candlestick patterns. Recently, the trend of $MERL , to be honest, has made me feel a bit uneasy.

During this time, I have been closely watching the market and have witnessed the bulls launch three attacks around the $0.5 mark, but as everyone has seen—the results were all failures.

In technical analysis, 'once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action' is not superstition, but a hard-earned experience from countless investments.

The first surge was a test;

The second surge was building momentum;

But if the third attempt still cannot break through, the significance is completely different.

$0.5 is no longer just a simple number, but a solid 'iron ceiling.'

The selling pressure at this level is thick like an invisible wall of copper and iron.

Every bullish candlestick attempting to break through has been forcefully pushed back, leaving long upper shadows—like mocking the bulls' weakness.

What’s worse is the current market environment:

Bitcoin and Ethereum are both correcting, and the overall market risk appetite is declining.

In this context, for $MERL to fly against the trend is very difficult.

You will see that every time it approaches $0.5, the trading volume spikes—but that’s not buying pressure; it feels more like the main players taking the opportunity to unload.

The active buying is obviously weak, like a marathon runner suddenly cramping during the final sprint.

The lack of sustained buying pressure is the most fatal.

Now, market sentiment has shifted from 'expecting a breakthrough' to 'preparing to retreat.'

Those who bought the dip in the $0.4 range have watched three attempts fail to break through $0.5 and their confidence is shattered.

Smart money is starting to take profits and even beginning to short.

On-chain data also corroborates this: a large number of profit-takers are exiting this range, unwilling to gamble on an unknown breakthrough.

If you ask me how I see the next steps?

I can only say honestly:

In the face of this iron ceiling validated three times, blindly going long is just giving money to the bears.

Once a trend is formed, it is not easily rewritten.

Now, $0.5 is likely to become the ceiling for $MERL for some time to come.