$SOL
Solana has spent several weeks moving inside a clear consolidation zone between $144 and $126, a range that began in mid-November. Two days ago, SOL was firmly testing $139, but weakness took over.
A brief push above the key resistance at $144, the one and a half year point of control, turned into a classic fakeout. Price dropped back below the level almost immediately, confirming a more bearish short-term tone and reaffirming the $144 ceiling.
A sustained range like this often continues until major new information enters the market. Last week brought a minor boost from the Solana ETF, which recorded inflows on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.
However, with total inflows of roughly $65 million and outflows of roughly $45 million, the net inflow of about $15 million shows interest but not enough strength to break a months-long consolidation by itself.
The major volatility catalyst arrives this Wednesday with the interest rate decision. The market currently expects a rate cut with an 86% probability, leaving 14% uncertainty that is enough to push traders to de-risk ahead of the announcement.
This macro pressure suggests that while the $126 to $144 range will likely hold, traders should prepare for a quick move lower before any recovery.
The most probable short-term scenario includes a dip into support near $126 and the trend line around $129, followed by a strong reaction upward and a move back toward the mid-range.
A clean reclaim of $129 would show firm buyer conviction and could drive price toward the $138 to $139 value area.
This setup does not justify a short position. Instead, it highlights the dip as a potential long opportunity, especially since Bitcoin and Ethereum charts also hint at a deeper flush before a broader recovery.
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