Federal Reserve interest rate cut script exposed early? The market has already voted with real money!

First, let's look at a set of hard data:

Polymarket predictions show: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has soared to 93%!

But the subsequent January decision: the probability of no rate cut surprisingly rose to 68%.

What does this mean?

The market has almost voted with its feet to determine: a December rate cut is a foregone conclusion. A consensus of 93% is extremely rare in prediction markets; this is no longer about "whether or not to cut," but rather a state of "waiting for the official announcement."

However, a more subtle signal lies ahead:

In January, the winds shifted dramatically, with the probability of no rate cut reaching 68%—this reveals the market's true expectation: "a one-time reassurance, rather than the beginning of a loosening cycle."

Interpretation of the impact on the crypto circle:

1️⃣ Short-term benefits have been priced in: if the rate cut occurs as scheduled in December, it is unlikely to lead to a surge, as the market has already digested it.

2️⃣ The key lies in Powell's speech: compared to the rate cut itself, the market is more focused on the Federal Reserve's statements regarding next year's interest rate path. Any hint of "hawkish rate cuts" could trigger volatility.

3️⃣ January becomes a new point of contention: if expectations for maintaining high interest rates in January continue to strengthen, risk assets may face a new wave of cautious sentiment after the year-end celebration.

In terms of operation, remember:

Don't chase news of "expectations materializing"

Pay attention to market reactions in the 24 hours after the decision

Maintain positions to respond to potential "sell the fact" market movements

The market always trades on "the gap between expectations and reality," and this time, the expectations have been clearly outlined. #特朗普取消农产品关税 #美联储重启降息步伐