US Fed Rate Cut Expectations Are Reaching a Breaking Point — Markets Are Already Positioning
The sentiment around the December Fed decision is becoming unusually one-sided. According to the latest market poll, a massive 93% of participants expect a 25 bps rate cut, while only a tiny fraction sees either a larger cut or no change at all. This kind of overwhelming consensus doesn’t happen often — and when it does, it usually means traders are already pricing in the move across risk assets.
What makes this even more interesting is the volume behind these expectations. With more than $632M USDT flowing into the prediction markets, investors are not just voting with opinions — they’re positioning with capital. This reflects a strong belief that the Fed will finally pivot and begin easing after a long period of restrictive policy.
If the cut comes as expected, markets could see a sharp short-term boost, especially in crypto, where liquidity reacts quickly to policy shifts. But if the Fed surprises with a smaller move — or no cut at all — the reaction could be violent, as the entire market is leaning one way.
Right now, all eyes remain on Powell. The reaction, not just the decision, is what will shape the next trend.
