At three o'clock yesterday morning, I made an 'anti-human' move by converting all 90,000 USDT that had been lying around for more than half a year into USDC while staring at my account balance. I sent a message to my fan group, and it immediately triggered over 200 inquiries: 'Is it going to rise?' 'Is USDT going to fail?' Today, let me clarify: it’s not following the trend, it’s about survival, especially for retail investors; this article can help you protect your wallet.
Let me throw out a heart-wrenching conclusion: holding USDT right now is like hiding from the rain under a leaking, dangerous wall; it's not a question of whether it will collapse, but when it will collapse. The trigger was a rating report from S&P on November 26, which directly stamped USDT with a 'risk red mark,' lowering its stability assessment to level 5. This is the 'floor level' in S&P's stablecoin ratings, which translates to 'weak enough to potentially fail at any time.'
As an analyst who has followed the stablecoin sector for five years, I have dug into the core insights of this report, each point hitting on risk factors. The most critical issue is the "deterioration" of reserve assets: previously, high-risk assets accounted for 17% of USDT, and now it has soared to 24%. It must be emphasized that the Bitcoin it holds now accounts for 5.6% of circulation, while the safe over-collateralization space is only 3.9%. What does this mean? Even if Bitcoin drops by 20%, this collateral could be directly wiped out, and your "stablecoin" could instantaneously become "unstable."
If asset ratio is "obvious risk," then lack of transparency in information is the hidden "thunder." Tether has not clarified to this day which institution our money is entrusted to, and whether the counterparties they collaborate with have any credit black history. Even more absurd, the details of reserve assets are like "squeezing toothpaste," with key data lacking even third-party audits. Would you dare to entrust your money to someone who won’t even say where the money is stored? I certainly wouldn’t.
There are some "invisible pits" that are even more bothersome. Tether is now engaging in "cross-border entrepreneurship," using our principal to speculate on gold and make investments, pocketing the profits while passing the risks onto the holders. I really find this laughable; are we their "risk-free ATM"? Not to mention that in El Salvador's loose regulatory environment, assets and other businesses are mixed together. If something goes wrong there, our money could be directly "frozen along with others," leaving us with no place to cry.
In my years in this industry, I have seen too many "wolf is coming" stories turn into tragedies. A couple of years ago, a certain stablecoin crashed; a young man among my followers put his entire wedding fund of 100,000 into it, only to lose it all in a day. Haven't there been enough issues with USDT over the years? Each time it has relied on "tough talk" to get through, but can retail investors always rely on such good luck?
Someone asked me: "Is USDC absolutely safe?" I never claim "absolutely," but at least it dares to publicly disclose the custodian, and the asset details are audited regularly, without taking your principal to "gamble." The essence of investing is not to make quick money; it is to safeguard the principal you painstakingly earned by working hard and monitoring the market. There’s no need to play "risk games" with Tether.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart: in the crypto market, retail investors are never the ones "eating meat," but rather the ones "bearing the thunder." When the wind changes, it’s more important to outperform most people than to make money. I have laid out the risk points clearly; now it’s up to your choice.
Want to know the future risk dynamics of stablecoins? Follow Yangyang; I monitor the market and compile data every day. I will issue warnings at the first sign of trouble. Let’s discuss in the comments which stablecoin you currently hold. Have you ever stepped into similar pitfalls? Let’s band together to avoid these risks; it’s much more reliable than exploring alone!
