In-depth analysis
1. Aggressive stock buybacks (Bullish impact)
Overview: Pump.fun has spent $1.15 million in stock buybacks over the last 24 hours as part of a $195 million program aimed at reducing the circulating supply by 12.8% since July 2025. This operation creates artificial scarcity while demonstrating the team's confidence.
Consequences: the reduction of the available supply for sale drives up the floor price. Historical data shows that buybacks are correlated with price increases of 10 to 20% in the short term, but the sustainability of these increases depends on demand.
Key point to watch: the daily volume of buybacks compared to profit-taking.
2. Spot market dominance (mixed impact)
Overview: In December, buyers outpaced sellers by 2.32 billion tokens, with exchange reserves falling to 33 billion PUMP (compared to 72 billion in September).
Consequences: Off-platform accumulation reduces immediate selling pressure, but large investors' wallets now hold 17.13 billion PUMP (+11.84% compared to the previous week), which risks leading to massive and concentrated sales.
3. Technical rebound signals (neutral impact)
Overview: The MACD histogram has entered positive territory for the first time since November, while the RSI (44) has exited the oversold zone. The price has crossed the simple moving average at 7 days ($0.00301).
Meaning: Short-term traders might interpret this as a trend reversal, but the price remains below the critical 30-day simple moving average ($0.00320).
Conclusion
The rebound of PUMP is explained by coordinated buybacks and spot accumulation, thus compensating for the overall weakness of the market. However, the token faces resistance at $0.00320 (30-day simple moving average) and remains 46% below its high of the last 60 days.
Key point to watch: will the buybacks be able to offset the sales from whales that conducted the presale (25.5 billion PUMP sold since July) as the 200-day simple moving average approaches $0.00450?
