Friends in the crypto circle, the next six months may be quite difficult, but this is precisely the time for sowing seeds. Many are focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but the real risk may lie “after” the cuts.
1. Rate cuts may not be a celebration, but rather a warning
The market generally expects the rate cut at 3 AM, but the real key is at 3:30 AM—Powell's speech. If he releases hawkish signals like “inflation is still high, and a pause may come next,” the market may interpret it as “the easing ends here,” and emotions could easily shift from excitement to panic. Historical data shows that after the first rate cut at the end of a rate hike cycle, the market often rises first and then falls, as this is a confirmation signal of economic slowdown.
2. Why should we be cautious even after rate cuts?
Inflation is still at a high of 3%, far above the 2% target, which means the space for rate cuts is actually limited;
Once rates drop to neutral levels (around 3.5%), the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue easing;
If economic data remains strong, the next rate cut could even be delayed.
3. My strategy: defense is key for the next six months
Reduce leverage, or even de-leverage: in a volatile market, high leverage is suicide;
Invest regularly without trying to catch the bottom: if the market pulls back, gradually accumulate spot positions at key support levels (like BTC 90,000, ETH 2,500), without going all in;
Focus on strong sectors: if the overall market declines, pay attention to sectors like AI, RWA, and Depin that have solid fundamentals and capital interest, as they may be more resilient.
4. The real opportunity lies in the second half of 2025
If Trump comes to power and replaces the Federal Reserve chairman, a larger easing cycle may truly begin. At that time, liquidity-driven effects combined with halving effects may lead to a market that lasts for several years. In the next six months, what we need to do is not chase short-term fluctuations, but rather preserve our capital, choose good targets, and remain in the market.
The next six months will be like the darkest time before dawn; the bull market is just temporarily tired, taking a rest for half a year, and will regain strength in the second half of next year. If you want to continuously follow market dynamics and obtain first-hand market information, follow me @luck萧 , and enjoy all updates directly in the chat room!
