Don't naively think that once the interest rate cuts are announced, you can rest easy; what you really need to be wary of is Powell's speech after the rate cut! This rate cut was not initiated by Powell himself but was completely forced by the situation.

Let me highlight a key time for everyone: the interest rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, followed by Powell's speech at 3:30 AM. I boldly predict that he will definitely release super strong hawkish signals, which is a precaution against "no more rate cuts in the future." It's important to know that Powell is not a soft-hearted person; when it comes to scaring the market, he will definitely hold nothing back.

Why do I say he will be so hawkish this time? After the rate cut, the interest rate will reach the "neutral interest rate" range of 3.5%, which will no longer have a significant restrictive effect on the economy like before. But now inflation is still as high as 3%, far from the 2% target.

Looking at the economic data, the performance isn't bad either; the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue cutting rates. This is completely consistent with Powell's previous attitude; he has said before that if they can avoid cutting rates, they will try to do so.

Based on this analysis, I have come to my own conclusion: after next week's rate cut, the market is likely to take a sharp turn downwards, initiating a period of deep correction.

Let me share my personal strategy: I plan to take advantage of the market before it drops, positioning long-term short positions at 2 - 5 times leverage.

If you want to play it safe and not take risks, then don't operate for now; wait until the market plummets next year before buying the dip.

Why wait until next year? Because in the second half of next year, there is a high probability of a real wave of easing. After Trump takes office, he will appoint a new Federal Reserve chair, and the new chair is likely to adopt an aggressive easing policy, cutting rates drastically. At that time, once liquidity returns, the market is likely to enter a major upward cycle for 3 - 5 years.

In simple terms, right now is the calm before the storm; next year is the real turning point. If you want to delve deep into this circle but can't find a clue, and want to quickly get started with information gaps, you can click on my avatar to follow and gain more first-hand information and in-depth analysis. #美联储重启降息步伐