Brothers, the big show of the Federal Reserve is about to land soon.
It can now be basically confirmed that the 25 basis points rate cut is no longer in suspense, the market has long digested it. What is really worth watching tonight is not whether to 'cut or not,' but rather two other things:
First, how fierce is their internal debate?
It is said that there will be significant disagreements in this meeting, and many will vote against. The more opposing votes there are, the more tangled the Federal Reserve will be internally, and the more likely the policy will change later.
Second, how will Powell 'smooth things over'?
This guy's speech is the focus. Will he hint that 'after this cut, we will stop,' or will he leave the market with some hope? Every word he uses will be magnified and interpreted by the market.
In simple terms: the interest rate cut is 'past tense,' while the disagreements and speeches are 'future tense'.
What impact does it have on us?
If the debate is particularly fierce (many opposing votes), the market might feel that 'the Federal Reserve is not so steadfast,' and in the short term, it might drop a bit.
If Powell speaks very 'dovish' (hinting at further cuts), then the risk might continue to play music and dance.
The most feared 'black swan': if there is no rate cut, then there's no need for analysis, just fasten your seatbelt.
In short, don’t bet on the direction, be prepared to respond. The real trend will be discussed after the market digests this wave of emotions! $BTC
