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Nomura Revises Forecast for the Federal Reserve’s December Rate Decision — Long Version
Nomura Securities has updated its outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming December policy meeting, now projecting a 25 basis point rate cut. This marks a notable shift from its earlier expectation that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged.
According to Odaily, Nomura’s revised view reflects growing evidence of dovish signals within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that additional “risk-management style” rate cuts may now be seen as justified by the Fed’s centrist policymakers.
Despite the change, Nomura emphasizes that uncertainty remains high regarding the final decision. The institution expects four hawkish members of the FOMC to oppose any rate cut, maintaining their stance favoring tighter monetary policy in order to combat inflation. On the opposite end, Milan is anticipated to adopt a more dovish perspective, even advocating for a 50 basis point cut.
Looking further ahead, Nomura continues to project that under the leadership of a new Federal Reserve Chair, the central bank will carry out two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in June and September of 2026. These forecasts reflect expectations of a gradual easing cycle aimed at supporting economic stability amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
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