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BTC November 21 hit a recent low of 80600, then rebounded to 93000 with an increase of about 15%, and then naturally fell back to around 84000, before rebounding again to 94100 and then falling back to 87700. The trend shows that the lows are getting higher and the highs are also getting higher. Before the interest rate cut is implemented, the trading direction is to go long near the previous low point, with a target of 95000-98000. The reasoning is that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10 (3 AM on December 11, East 8 Time) is 86.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13.8%. Jin Shi also provided an expectation value of 3.75%. Therefore, the interest rate cut should be a done deal. Recently, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and others will successively announce interest rates, and there is much discussion in the market about whether Japan will increase interest rates, with the interest rate decision expected on December 19. There is currently no conclusion on whether to increase rates, and Jin Shi data does not show an expected value. The time interval between the two is 9 days, so there is plenty of space for this.
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