📈Blockchain-based prediction markets are increasingly attracting speculators seeking to achieve returns superior to simply holding cryptocurrencies outright. Prediction markets are becoming a new arena for speculation, leading to extreme information asymmetry and obvious arbitrage opportunities between retail investors and data-driven professional traders. The report highlights that, for quantitative traders, prediction markets can offer more advantageous asymmetric returns compared to the upside potential of spot tokens. For example, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" share regarding whether the BNB token will reach $1,500 by December 31, 2025 traded around $0.01, meaning that if the event occurs, it would be possible to achieve a potential return of 100 times the initial stake. However, the high success rates of certain accounts on prediction markets raise concerns about insider trading. Polymarket user AlphaRaccoon, for example, made a profit of over $1 million in a single day by betting on Google search trends, winning 22 out of 23 bets placed. Additionally, Polymarket user ilovecircle has earned over $2.2 million in the last two months, maintaining a success rate of 74% through bets covering politics, sports, and cryptocurrencies. It is assumed that he uses machine learning models for cross-sector arbitrage and automated trading.
BNBUSDT
Perp
896.4
-2.52%
SOLUSDT
Perp
136.7
-4.68%
LAUSDT
Perp
0.3605
-2.64%