Have you noticed: Recently, $BTC has clearly decoupled from the US stock market and global M2.

The reasons are simple, four things combined:

① The US stock market is an independent AI bull, not a liquidity bull.

This year's S&P rise is almost entirely due to tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Funds are going into AI, not risk assets, so a rise in the US stock market does not equal a rise in BTC.

② Money from M2 has not flowed into crypto.

Global liquidity is slowing down, with funds moving to AI in the US stock market, government bonds, and money market funds, so BTC naturally cannot keep up with M2.

③ Japan's interest rate hike is draining liquidity from global markets.

The yen carry trade is starting to unwind, leading to tightened global liquidity, and high-volatility assets are the first to feel the pressure, with BTC being passively suppressed.

④ The four-year cycle is being traded prematurely.

Market expectations of an "early bear market after the halving" have led to early selling, reinforcing BTC's independent trend.

What should we do next to make money?

First, do not use the old framework to view the market.

BTC has changed from a "liquidity market" to an asset driven by "structural capital flows"; understanding direction is more important than watching the overall market.

Second, focus on two types of assets:

• Tracks with real incremental growth: AI chains, computing power, data, infrastructure.

• Undervalued varieties with consensus reversal signals, rather than blindly bottom-fishing.

Third, maintain rhythm, do not bet on a one-sided market.

Currently, we are in a tightening environment, and high-volatility assets will inevitably undergo repeated fluctuations. Ranges, events, and phases are the mainstream strategies.

Do not stubbornly adhere to old logic; follow the flow of funds to seize structural opportunities, manage the rhythm well, and wait for the major cycle reversal to naturally profit.

Markets are always changing, but the ones who can consistently make money are those who understand the flow of funds and can grasp the main lines.

If you want to join me in seizing structural opportunities, avoiding detours, and spotting opportunities in advance—

Remember to come to the 【chat room】, when the next wave of certain entry points emerges, I will remind you at the first moment. #美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐