The crypto market perked up Monday on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut that are juicing the appetite for risk across the board. Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $92,000, up 3% over the last 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes added in the region of 3.5%.
That said, bulls might want to exercise caution because there are least three yellow flags waving. First off, this rate cut is basically a done deal, so all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's forward guidance and whether he'll signal more cuts in 2026.
Some market watchers are betting against aggressive easing. Case in point: The 10-year yield is climbing in the lead-up to the meeting, hinting bond traders smell a hawkish vibe.
Momentum's leaning bearish too. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Index screams strong downtrend, and the ether equivalent isn't far behind. These flipped bearish in mid-November, nailing the timing on the price slide that followed.
Flows aren't screaming "buy" either. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs leaked a net $87.77 million last week, with spot ether ETFs bleeding $65.59 million, according to #Sosovalue .
"The tape is constructive beneath the surface, as big wallets are accumulating and exchange supply is historically low, but the market is politically and macro-sensitive this week," said Timothy Misir, a research analyst at #BRN .
Misir added that a hawkish Fed cut, large-scale ETF outflows or re-acceleration of exchange inflows and data that dents rate-cut bets, could play spoilsport.
Watch for volatility in the broader market too, as token unlocks for CONX, APT, STRK, CHEEL, LINEA, and BB, each worth over $5 million, are scheduled for the next seven days, as noted by newsletter service #LondonCryptoClub .
Over in traditional markets, gold's rally has hit pause around $4,200 per ounce. Stay alert!
Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt
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