$BTC is entering FOMC week in an unusually fragile position. The combination of pressure from miner, weak liquidity, and new macro variable is putting the market at a critical inflection point.
š¹ The FOMC Trap The market is pricing in an 87.2% chance that the Fed will cut rates to 3.50%-3.75%.
If history repeat itself with the previou two cut, trader should be wary of the scenario: Slight increase before the new - Short term increase Bounce - Fall afterward.
šø Liquidity & Demand:
Exchange reserves fell from 2.95 million BTC (August) to 2.76 million BTC, indicating weakening Spot demand.
A surprising development is that BTC price is now most strongly correlated with RBI liquidity, suggesting that BTC is responding to global money flow and not just the Fed.
š¹ Capitulation Signal:
Miner Stress: Hash Ribbon indicator has turned Bearish, a sign of declining miner revenue and weak miners starting to shut down.
Panic Selling: STH-NUPL Short Term Holder Profit index plunged into negative territory (-0.15), confirming recent panic and loss taking by buyer.
While the short term risk is clear, with over $10 trillion of sidelined capital in money market fund , falling interest rate could trigger a risk on rotation.
Do you think this rate cut will be a Sell the new or a real boost for the Bull Run?
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