$BTC opens the week under the shadow of the monetary announcement arriving on Wednesday.
The market is expecting Jerome Powell, President of the Federal Reserve (FED) of the United States, to announce a 25 basis point cut in interest rates.
The probability of this happening is very high: 89.2%.
Only 10.8% believe that the rates will remain the same.
While investors await this decision, the price of bitcoin has gone up a bit, rising from 90,000 USD to over 92,000 USD, after several weeks of sharp ups and downs.
🎯 What could happen with $BTC depending on what the FED decides?
🔹 1. If the FED cuts rates less than expected (or does not cut)
This would be taken as a message of caution.
➡️ Bitcoin could drop sharply, as investors would adjust their expectations regarding how rates will be in 2026.
🔹 2. If the FED cuts more than 25 points (meaning, more than anticipated)
The market would see it as something positive.
➡️ Bitcoin could rise, as appetite for risk increases.
⚠️ Regardless of the announcement, analysts at JP Morgan warn that an immediate profit-taking could occur.
This means that many investors might sell bitcoin right after the announcement, just to secure profits, because the rate cut was already "priced in", meaning it was already incorporated into the current prices.
➡️ This could limit any strong rise of bitcoin after the announcement.
🔭 What comes next?
If the cut is confirmed, attention will focus on:
The FED's economic projections.
Powell's statements.
Both will influence how the markets behave during the first quarter of 2026.
✔️ In short
Everyone expects a rate cut.
Bitcoin is sensitive and could move strongly depending on the surprise of the announcement.
Even if there is a cut, there could be quick sales to secure profits.
Powell's words will be key to what happens in 2026.
