#美联储降息周三公布引市场关注 $BTC The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, announced at 3 AM Beijing time on December 11th (local time on December 10th), comes with strong expectations for a rate cut, leading Wall Street institutions to collectively adjust their forecasts, thus drawing significant market attention:
1. Extremely high rate cut expectations: According to CME's "FedWatch", the current probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 89.6%. If realized, the target range for the federal funds rate will decrease to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025.
2. Institutions collectively adjusting forecasts: Previously, several institutions had predicted a pause in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, but recently, Standard Chartered Bank, Bank of America, and others have all revised their reports, while major investment banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley now uniformly expect a 25 basis point rate cut, primarily based on soft economic indicators like the U.S. November ADP employment data.
3. Diverse core market focus: On one hand, there are policy divergences, with Nomura Securities expecting four hawkish members to oppose a rate cut, while Fed Governor Milan may cast a dovish dissenting vote due to advocating a 50 basis point cut; on the other hand, there is policy guidance, as investors will closely monitor the "dot plot" released during the meeting and Powell's statements at the press conference to assess the rate cut path in 2026; additionally, whether Powell will remain in office next year and the policy inclinations of the next chairperson are also of high market concern.
