FOMC Meeting: Fed Expected to Approve Rate Cut on Dec. 10
The December FOMC meeting is set to dominate markets this week as traders price in a high-probability rate cut. CME FedWatch data shows a 90% chance the Federal Reserve will lower rates by another 25 bps on December 10, marking the third cut of 2024 after similar moves in September and October. Polymarket odds are even more aggressive, assigning a 95% probability to the cut as macro data cools, including softer U.S. core PCE inflation released last week.
Bitcoin reacted ahead of the meeting, rebounding above $90,000 as traders positioned for looser monetary conditions. Prospective Fed Chair Kevin Hassett reinforced expectations during an interview on CNBC, signaling support for a 25 bps cut while emphasizing the need for ongoing data review. Hassett, now viewed as the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell, is expected to align the Fed more closely with the Trump administration’s push for lower rates.
However, Bitcoin’s rally may face risk after the announcement. Historical patterns show BTC has corrected after six of seven FOMC meetings this year, with drops averaging 15%. The October meeting triggered a 19% decline, while January saw a sharp 25% selloff. Analysts warn that with the cut already priced in, the market’s next move will depend on Powell’s forward guidance and any signals about monetary policy heading into 2026.
