Musk's statement on X, 'War is inevitable, within 5 to 10 years', directly shocked the global public opinion landscape. Don't think this is just a casual pessimistic remark from a big shot—someone who holds Starlink, AI, rockets, and social discourse power never sees the mortgage and car loans of ordinary people; they only see the competition for military contracts, the restructuring of energy patterns, and the reshuffling of technological hegemony.
For people in the cryptocurrency world, hearing the word 'war' immediately triggers the thought, 'Can Bitcoin hold up? How should assets be adjusted?'. After all, previous conflicts have already taught us lessons: during the Russia-Ukraine war, Bitcoin first dropped 10% and then rebounded to 45,000, while during the Iran conflict, 1 billion was liquidated across the network within 24 hours. Each geopolitical storm sends the cryptocurrency market on a rollercoaster ride. Moreover, after Kiyosaki just shouted about the 'once-in-a-century crash approaching', he immediately recommended Bitcoin and Ethereum as 'lifesaving assets', which made everyone pin their risk-hedging hopes on cryptocurrencies.
But instead of getting tangled up in whether 'the price will rise or fall when war comes,' we should be more vigilant about the three truths that actually lie behind Musk's prophecies:
1. The 'war warning' from big names may just be a 'script' for creating momentum in the business world.
Don't take Musk's words as mere risk alerts; there's a lot of careful commercial planning behind them. While he shouts that 'the future is drone warfare,' he is using Tesla's manufacturing advantages to create low-cost drones, showcasing their practical value on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield through Starlink. In essence, he wants to seize the traditional military-industrial giants' cake and restructure the U.S. defense procurement system. Just like some big influencers in the crypto circle shout 'the bull market is about to crash' or 'the bear market has bottomed out,' the essence is not to predict the market but to buy low and sell high—big names' words have always served their own interests.
2. Bitcoin's 'safe-haven property' is no longer an absolute answer.
Many people see Bitcoin as a 'safe haven for funds' in times of war, but the reality is far more complex than imagined. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Bitcoin first dropped and then rose; during the Israel-Palestine conflict, it oscillated upwards; and during the Iran conflict, the 24-hour drop was only 4.5%. Now, institutional funds are taking an increasingly large share, and the war sentiment has long been diluted by ETF fund flows, with the risk-averse funds flowing into the crypto market being less than 5%. More critically, Bitcoin is not just a borderless value transfer tool that can help conflict-affected areas break through sanctions and raise funds; its essence is still a highly volatile risk asset. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and global liquidity have far greater impact than localized wars. While Kiyosaki sells Bitcoin for 2.25 million, he urges people to increase their positions, having seen through the narrative that 'risk aversion' is merely a market hype, not a guaranteed profit.
3. The scariest thing is not the prophecies of war, but that we forget to ask, 'Who is stirring the pot?'
Now, when we hear 'war is coming,' people in the crypto circle are busy calculating their positions and analyzing K-lines, while ordinary people are busy stockpiling supplies and worrying about their jobs. Very few ask: Who is amplifying the risk of conflict? Who is reaping profits from the 'war narrative'? Musk's advocacy for AI warfare and drone swarms seems to reduce war casualties, but in reality, it lowers the threshold for conflict; the 'war risk aversion' hype in the crypto circle seems to remind of risks but actually leads people to follow the crowd in panic, becoming prey to the reaper. Just like every time the market plummets, someone shouts 'a black swan has arrived,' yet no one admits to having positioned short in advance—we have grown accustomed to being swept away by emotions, forgetting that rational judgment is the talisman for survival in chaotic times.
In fact, Musk's prophecies are more like a mirror reflecting the cracks in the global order and the harsh reality of capital competition. For people in the crypto circle, instead of worrying about whether a war will break out in 10 years, it's better to focus on current risk prevention: don't blindly trust 'safe-haven assets'; make sure your position allocations have enough safety margins; don't be misled by the rhetoric of big names; pay more attention to macro policies and the essence of the market; and above all, don’t follow the crowd in panic; a rational view of market fluctuations is the way to longevity.
After all, what truly transcends cycles is not betting on prophecies, but a clear understanding of the market and a deep respect for risk. World peace is certainly worth looking forward to, but the core of survival in the crypto circle will always be 'not being bound by narratives and not being swayed by emotions.'#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH $BNB
