In the 7 FOMC meetings that have passed in 2025,
Bitcoin only rises once, the other 6 times it declines.
The only increase was on May 7th, up 15%.
What does this tell you?
**FOMC is not a favorable market, but a 'expectation explosion market'.
The vast majority of people are cut by the same illusion:
——You think the market looks at interest rates,
In fact, the market is looking at the expectation falling short.**
Brothers,
FOMC is not the starting point of the market,
FOMC is the end point of the market.
1. Why does BTC rise before FOMC and fall after FOMC?
Because the core rhythm of the market is always:
Expectation → Realization → Smash
Everyone is betting:
Powell's tone has turned dovish
The Federal Reserve hinted at interest rate cuts
Inflation is falling faster than expected
Market risk appetite increases
These expectations were already priced in before the meeting,
Once FOMC opens, all these expectations will enter "settlement mode."
The essence of FOMC is not the interest rate,
But rather a "emotional reset."
Once expectations are reset, prices will start to drop.
2. Why has there only been one rise this year? Because that time was the "expectation reversal" structure.
Why did the FOMC on May 7 rise?
The market generally expects a hawkish stance
But the result was milder than expected
A 180-degree contrast between expectation and result
Prices have taken a huge "over-expectation space"
In other words:
Rising is not due to good news, but because too many people are betting in the wrong direction.
All 6 drops this year have a common point:
The information from FOMC is very close to market expectations.
No contrast
No surprises
There is no deviation
is equivalent to:
There is no speculation space.
There is no emotional space.
There is only realization space.
The result will definitely be a drop.
3. What to expect from this week's FOMC? The risk is not in the data but in the fact that "the market has risen too long."
Analysts are right:
This week, the biggest risk for BTC is: profit realization + structural profit-taking.
Why?
① BTC has seen a huge increase in the past two months
From 78,000 to 90,000
From repeated fluctuations to breaking new highs
A large amount of leveraged positions and spot positions are in floating profit.
FOMC is the best "expectation smashing point."
② The market has already bet on "future interest rate cuts"
But the Federal Reserve will most likely maintain this week:
No commitment to interest rate cuts
No clear path given
No optimistic guidance
Do not let the market make mistakes in advance
That is to say:
What the market wants to hear, the Federal Reserve will not say.
This difference is the space for "drop."
③ BTC historical pattern: FOMC does not look at content, but at timing
FOMC is always an excellent time for market liquidation:
Pre-pumped up
Consolidation before the meeting
After the meeting, the mood will be hit
Accumulation is complete
And then take the next step
The entire year of 2025 has proven this point.
4. The real core: a drop after FOMC is actually good for the cycle
Brothers, don't get it wrong:
FOMC is not a trend reversal point,
FOMC is the trend wash point.
As long as BTC's structure is still there:
Positions will not explode
No liquidation pile-up
Leverage is controllable
There are still supporters below
So the "drop" after FOMC,
On the contrary, it is a reset opportunity for the next market segment.
And after those 6 drops this year,
BTC has already reached new highs afterwards.
FOMC drop = the starting point for the next main rising wave.
5. My conclusion:
Brothers, don't be scared by "falling 6 times and rising once."
What this set of data really tells you is not that "FOMC is bearish,"
But rather:
**FOMC is the expectation explosion point,
After the explosion, the market will be cleaner and stronger.**
If it really drops after this week's FOMC,
I would actually feel more at ease because:
Emotions will be cleaned up
Leverage will be cleared in one go
Expectations will be reset
Main force has space to restart
The real danger is not the drop,
The real danger is not dropping from high positions.
You must remember a golden rule of cycles:
**The knife that FOMC brings down,
Is often the position for the next main rising wave.**
💬$BTC
