Santiment today released data that can penetrate the underlying logic of the market:
In the past year, CEX (centralized exchanges) had a net outflow of 403,200 BTC,
which is equivalent to 2.09% of the total supply.
Note, it is a net outflow, not a 'transfer'.
Meaning:
**These 400,000 coins are no longer being sold on the market.
It no longer exists.
disappeared from circulation.**
Brothers, the level of this data is greater than the inflow of ETFs.
Just think about it:
ETFs have absorbed about 500,000 coins this year,
The exchange has lost another 400,000 coins,
In total, nearly a million BTC have been locked out of the market.
Bull markets start quietly like this.
It's not rising, but rather:
**No one can sell.
No coins can be sold.
Those who can sell are unwilling to sell.
Those willing to sell no longer have coins.**
One, why is 'outflow from exchanges' more important than price fluctuations?
Because BTC's logic is different from stocks:
Stock prices rise → more people sell
BTC rises → more people hold tight
Stocks need high supply and demand to rise.
BTC skyrockets when supply is limited to the extreme and demand increases each year.
Where did the 400,000 coins go in the past year?
It's not about reversing positions
It's not arbitrage
It's not about moving bricks
But rather:
Cold wallet
Long-term holding
Corporate balance sheet
ETF custody
Self-custody
Family office
Sovereign fund
Long-term institutional wallets
The meaning is very clear:
**These 400,000 coins have already exited the 'trading market.'
They belong to long-term players and won't come back.**
Two, why is this the core signal of the 'bull market structure'?
BTC's price is not driven by the main force, nor by retail buying,
But rather the natural result of supply depletion + rising demand.
The strongest signal of declining supply is:
More and more BTC is leaving exchanges.
Because:
In exchanges = tradable
Leaving exchanges = not selling (at least not selling in the short term)
Every round of BTC's main uptrend in the past has had the same characteristics:
2012–2013: Exchange outflow reaches a new high → BTC rises from 10 to 1000
2016–2017: Exchange outflow reaches a new high → BTC rises from 300 to 20000
2020–2021: Exchange outflow reaches a new high → BTC rises from 8000 to 69000
2024–2025: ???
The results are already following the same path:
Supply retreat period = accumulation period before the main uptrend.
The quieter the market, the better the charts look, the cleaner the chips are.
This is the most 'shadowy' stage of the bull market, and also the most dangerous bear trap.
Three, why is the current outflow scale more exaggerated than before?
① Because ETFs, enterprises, and family funds are joining the long-term holding camp
In the past, there were only retail investors, miners, and a few institutions.
Now it is:
Blackstone
Fidelity
VanEck
ARK
MicroStrategy
Listed companies in Japan
Middle Eastern family funds
They have something in common:
Once bought, they won't sell.
It's not about speculating on coins, it's about reserving assets.
② Because the cycles are completely different from 2017 and 2021
2021 was a retail investor bull market.
2025 is the institutional bull market.
How much do institutions buy?
Depends on asset management scale (AUM).
How much do retail investors buy?
Depends on salary and luck.
The gap between these two is tens of thousands of times.
③ Exchange BTC balances have dropped to 2016 levels
What was 2016?
The starting point of the last super bull market.
Do you understand?
Four, why isn't the price vertically skyrocketing when 400,000 coins are gone?
Because the market is still in the 'transfer of chips phase.'
The characteristics of this stage are:
Large holders continue to absorb
Retail investors are still hesitating
Institutions only add, not reduce
Bears look at the macro
Bulls look at on-chain
The main force is not in a hurry to pull up
This is called:
Structural slow bull → elastic compression → once it breaks through, it will rise straight.
The more it rises and stays still, the more you should be afraid.
Because there is no one selling above.
Five, what is the impact on BTC, ETH, and altcoins?
① BTC: Will experience extreme surges at some point in the future
It's not an explosion, it's:
Breakthrough of historical highs in a few days
A few weeks to complete a major market segment
The entire market is caught off guard
Because the supply really isn't enough.
② ETH: It will start a severe rebound after BTC enters the acceleration phase
The bull market start time for ETH is always pushed back,
But the increases are always astonishing.
PeerDAS + ETF expectations + reduced supply = large cycle resonance.
ETH will slowly endure,
But the outbreak will scare the bears.
③ Altcoins: Prepare to welcome the 'forced capital outflow' market
When BTC can't go up or down,
Funds will definitely flow to:
SOL
RWA
AI
L2
Established mainstream
New narrative
These high beta sectors are liquid.
Liquidity never rests.
Six, my conclusion:
Brothers, this Santiment data is telling you:
**Bull markets are not bought out, they grow naturally when they can't be sold.
Now is the era when it can't be sold.**
40.32 million BTC leaves exchanges,
This is not good news; it’s the bull market engine being quietly ignited.
When supply retreats,
When institutions lock in positions,
When retail investors do not believe,
As exchange balances continue to decline...
The next segment of the market is:
Strong trends are irreversible → the main uptrend time window opens.
The BTC you see now is 90,000 and is not falling,
All are typical phenomena formed after this structure.$BTC
