The crypto market looks euphoric again , new ATH rumors, leverage stacking up, and timelines filled with “supercycle” narratives. But I’m still bearish on Bitcoin in the short-to-mid term, and my target remains $75,000 or even lower before any meaningful continuation.
Here’s why sentiment doesn’t match reality, backed by facts, data, and timeless market wisdom.
1. Market Structure Is Showing Clear Exhaustion
Even though Bitcoin keeps retesting higher ranges, the macro trend momentum is weakening.
Weekly RSI has been diverging from price for months a classic sign of buyer exhaustion.
Volume has dropped significantly on recent rallies, showing strong price but weak demand.
Every new pump is driven by fewer participants, mostly leveraged traders, not fresh spot buyers.
In technical terms, this is exactly the type of structure that forms before a deeper correction.
“Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.” Richard Russell
The same applies to Bitcoin when the entire rally rests on weak participation.
2. Leverage Has Become a Major Risk Factor
Across major exchanges:
Open interest is near cycle highs.
Funding rates are frequently positive, showing aggressive long positioning.
More traders expect upside than downside, which historically leads to the opposite.
When too many people are on the same side of a trade, the market punishes them.
“When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.” Humphrey B. Neill
A leverage reset to $75K or lower would liquidate late longs and reset the market for a healthier rally.
3. ETF Flows Are Slowing , Not Accelerating
The initial inflow hype has cooled. Recent data shows:
Net inflows have become inconsistent, even slipping into outflows on certain days.
Institutional demand is not increasing at the previous rate.
New capital is not matching the amount required to sustain a parabolic move.
This tells us the demand pillar that pushed BTC up is losing strength.
4. Miner Behavior Is Turning Bearish
Miner fundamentals matter more after a halving, and what we see now is important:
Miner reserves are dropping, which means miners are selling into strength.
Hashrate growth is slowing.
Several mining companies are under revenue pressure and increasing BTC distribution.
Miners selling usually signals distribution near cycle tops.
“Smart money sells into strength; dumb money buys into it.” Jesse Livermore
5. Global Liquidity Is Not Expanding Fast Enough
Bitcoin thrives in an environment where money is cheap and plentiful. But right now:
The U.S. Fed is not aggressively cutting rates.
Liquidity indicators like M2 growth are still relatively flat.
Major economies are focusing on inflation control rather than easy monetary policy.
Without liquidity expansion, Bitcoin cannot sustain a long-term parabolic move.
6. Retail Euphoria Without Real Cash Inflow
Retail sentiment indicators show:
Extreme greed territory on many days.
Social platforms filled with “$200K soon”, “supercycle confirmed”, and unrealistic predictions.
Meme coins outperforming BTC a common sign of late-cycle behavior.
Historically, when retail gets overly confident, corrections follow.
“Be fearful when others are greedy.” Warren Buffett
7. Technical Target Supports a Drop to $75K
If the market breaks below support zones, the next major liquidity pocket lies between:
$72,000 – $75,000
Why this region?
It’s a previous high-volume node in the market structure.
It is the ideal zone for liquidity hunts and long liquidations.
It aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels used by institutional traders.
A dip into this zone would clean out leverage and set the foundation for a much stronger rally later.
Conclusion: The Market Needs a Healthier Reset
I’m not anti-Bitcoin. I’m anti-euphoria.
I’m bearish not because I doubt the long-term future, but because I believe the market is overheated and running on weak legs.
A correction to $75K or below would be:
Healthy
Necessary
And historically consistent
with previous pre-blowoff phases.
Sometimes the most bullish thing the market can do…
is drop first.
