Yesterday, the Bitcoin market was again like before, a typical "high pullback and then oscillation" roller coaster trend. It was hard to rise to around 92200 during the day, but when it encountered resistance, it couldn't go higher. After some high-level oscillation, it slowly began to fall back in the evening, and in the early morning, it directly broke below the 90,000 mark, wiping out all the rebound space from the day. Fortunately, it rebounded a bit afterward, maintaining a sideways movement around 90,000-91,000 until today. In contrast, Ethereum was slightly more resilient, stopping the decline when it dropped to around 3080 in the early morning, and then it continued to oscillate in the range above that level, around 3100-3140, with little fluctuation.
The core reason for this wave of oscillation is still that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, and the market is all 'waiting for news' and afraid to move. Currently, CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 89%. Logically, such easing expectations should provide support for cryptocurrency prices, but everyone feels uncertain. After all, there are significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve right now; doves believe the weak job market should prompt a rate cut to guard against risks, while hawks are concerned that inflation has not fallen to target levels and oppose further easing. Additionally, recent statements from Harshid, a popular candidate for the next chairman, are not very dovish, suggesting that future rate cut plans should not be predetermined but should depend on data, which makes the market's expectations for next year's easing schedule even more uncertain.
To put it simply, the market right now is 'buying expectations but not daring to chase highs.' Institutions are all on the sidelines, afraid of a 'hawkish rate cut'—meaning rates may be cut but suggesting no easing afterwards, which could trigger a sell-off. This cautious sentiment prevents funds from entering recklessly, so even with rate cut expectations supporting it, the cryptocurrency prices cannot sustain upward momentum and can only fluctuate within a range.
The technical analysis also justifies this oscillating pattern. Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, the Bollinger Bands on the daily and four-hour charts are tightening, with the upper and lower bands coming close together, and the short-term moving averages are intertwined, showing no clear direction. Those who understand some technicals know that a tightening Bollinger Band usually indicates the market is building momentum, with no major fluctuations, waiting for a significant news event to break the balance, and this time the news is clearly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
In the short term, we still need to focus on key range operations. The resistance above Bitcoin is at 92000 and 94000, which have both previously failed to break through, so there is significant pressure; the support below is at 89000 and 88000, especially 88000; if it breaks below, it may test lower levels again. The 3000 level for Ethereum remains a battleground for both bulls and bears in the short term; if it holds, there’s a chance to push towards 3150 and 3250; if it can't hold, the next support is 2950.
Bitcoin short-term suggestion reference:
1. Buy near the 89000-88000 area on a pullback, target 90000-90500
2. Sell near the 92000-92500 area on a rebound, target 91000-90500
Ethereum short-term suggestion reference:
1. Buy near the 2950-2900 area on a pullback, target 3000-3030
2. Sell near the 3180-3250 area on a rebound, target 3120-3080
How things proceed now completely depends on the Federal Reserve's 'mood.' If the rate cut happens as expected, and Powell speaks dovishly at the press conference, implying further rate cuts next year, Bitcoin is likely to surge towards 94000, and Ethereum could stabilize above 3200; but if a 'hawkish rate cut' occurs, or if there is no rate cut at all, the prices may surge and then pull back, possibly testing significant support levels below.
Ahead of the data release, we should remain cautious, trading in the range by buying low and selling high, as the market sentiment is too sensitive before the decision is finalized, making volatility unpredictable. Once the decision results are out and the direction is clear, it won’t be late to follow the trend.
The market is all 'waiting for news' and afraid to move. Currently, CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 89%. Logically, such easing expectations should provide support for cryptocurrency prices, but everyone feels uncertain.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jane and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only. Investing carries risks, and entry into the market should be cautious; please make reasonable decisions based on your actual situation.
Article by Jane Crypto
