The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has soared to 89.4%. Essentially, it tells you that the rate cut on the 11th is a done deal.
But I would like to remind everyone: the market has already 'digested' this matter in advance. Now, the current prices may already reflect this expectation to a large extent. So on the actual announcement day, be careful of the old routine of 'news landing, market reversing'.
What should we pay attention to? What exactly does the Federal Reserve say? Are they only cutting this time, or are they hinting at further cuts later? This attitude is much more important than the rate cut itself.
How will Powell 'smooth things over'? If this big brother shows even the slightest hesitation in his speech, the market might take the opportunity to shake out positions.
Don’t rush in just before the news comes out; take it easy. During the expectation phase, it's fine to get excited, but when it actually lands, think faster than you act.
